Economic Monitor Issue 13 | January 2021

Overview

  • Due to COVID-19, GDP declined by 4.6% in 2020: a moderate decline in international comparison. In 2021, growth of 4.3% is expected
  • Stability of the external sector during the crisis: current account surplus (2020: 4.7% of GDP), moderate exchange rate dynamics, international reserves reached their highest level since 2012 (USD 29 bn)
  • Inflation is currently at the 5% target of the central bank, policy rates were decreased to a historic low of 6% to support economic recovery
  • During the crisis, the budget deficit considerably increased (2020 estimate: 5.6% of GDP), and will decrease only slightly in 2021, public debt meanwhile increased to 65.7% of GDP
  • International trade declined by 9.1% after 11M2020: stronger decrease of imports (-12,9%) than exports (-3,5%)

Topics

  • IMF programme. IMF-support remains vital, reinforced reform effort is necessary
  • Banking sector. Stability during crisis proves importance of reforms in previous years
  • Coal transition. Phase-out of coal mining will be supported by Germany
  • Electricity market. Still a long way to go to a fully liberalised market
  • COVID-19. Development of case numbers, domestic measures, economic support
Download Economic Monitor 13/2021