Economic Monitor Moldova
After a severe recession in 2022, Moldova’s GDP grew by only 0.7% in 2023 and is expected to increase by a moderate 2.6% in 2024. Key issues include a lack of growth drivers, an overvalued leu affecting competitiveness, and a high budget deficit. Although inflation has stabilized, public investment challenges persist, and trade normalizes. ICT exports show positive momentum.
WA 20 | September 2024
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- After a massive recession in 2022, GDP grew by only 0.7% in 2023
- GDP expected to increase moderately by 2.6% in 2024
- As such, lack of growth drives in the MDA economy
- Inflation (4.8%) back in the National Bank tolerance band
- Slowdown in the appreciation of Moldovan leu; but still overvalued, with a negative effect on international competitiveness of MDA firms
- Budget deficit of 4.8% of GDP planned for 2024; problems with execution of public investment remains an issue, thus contributing to the investment weakness of the country
- Less re-exports to UKR; as such, normalisation of foreign trade in goods
- ICT service exports continue to expand
Stabilisation of the macroeconomic situation, however lack of growth drivers
Special issues
- Technology parks. Two specialisedparks planned, focusing on electronics and agro-food
- Gagauzia. Economy heavily reliant on agro-food sector. Fiscalrevenues per capita higher than in other regions due to its autonomous status
