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Economic Monitor

The Economic Monitor, published every six months, provides a concise overview of the overall economic situation. Apart from general macroeconomic trends, current economic policy issues are also covered.

  • Economic Monitor Ukraine

    WA 18 | November 2023

     

     

  • Economic Monitor Belarus

    WA 18 | November 2023

    After a strong recession in 2022, the Belarusian economy grew by 3.5% in 9M2023. Growth was driven by capital investment, manufacturing and the low base of the previous year. Due to the declining base effect and low growth potential, GET expects a slowdown in the growth pace (2.0% in 2023), which will be followed by economic stagnation (0.1% in 2024). Inflation is currently very low (2.0% in Sep-23), but the medium-term outlook is uncertain as the current low rate depends on price controls. Falling revenues and limited access to international credits continue to put pressure on public finances. Foreign trade is characterised by increasing dependence on Russia, but due to the appreciation of BYN against RUB, Belarus is facing increasing difficulties in exports to Russia. Foreign trade is therefore becoming increasingly unbalanced this year.

  • Economic Monitor Armenia

    WA 10 | September 2023

    The boom generated by migration from Russia to Armenia is starting to slow down this year. Next year, GDP growth will be again near the long-term growth path. Inflation dynamics have weakened significantly, the Armenian dram remains stable against the US dollar and has appreciated strongly against the Russian rouble. The fiscal situation is stable.

  • Economic Monitor Moldova

    WA 18 | September 2023

    After a significant decline of GDP in 2022, Moldova’s economy continues to struggle in the first half of 2023 with GDP decreasing by 2.3 % yoy. Private consumption remains weak and a key driver of this downturn. On the other hand, inflation continues to decline steadily and is expected to be as low as 5.5% by the end of the year. As such, more positive impulses for consumption are expected for the rest of the year. Together with a positive outlook for agriculture, the overall estimate for the year is moderate with an expected GDP growth rate of 2%. In terms of public finances, an increase in the deficit to 6% is planned. Whether or not this deficit will be realised also depends on the extent to which the government will be able to improve its implementation capacities especially for public investment.

     

  • Economic Monitor Kosovo

    WA 5 | August 2023

    Following strong, tourism-driven service exports and buffering effects of state subsidies and remittances on private consumption, Kosovo’s economic grew at a rate of 3.5% in 2022. Negative influences such as low public investment activities and a negative terms of trade shock driven by surging prices for imported commodities could thus be more than outbalanced. For 2023, economic growth is forecasted to be even higher with a predicted rate of 3.8%, however, driven by very different factors than in 2022 – especially a predicted surge in public consumption and investment after stalling in 2022 is predicted to play a key role to this end. In addition, inflation is expected to ease over the year with sharp decreases already observable in the first months of 2023.

  • Economic Monitor Ukraine

    WA 17 | May 2023

    After Ukraine’s economy declined by 29.1% in 2022, economic growth is further impeded by war-related factors in 2023. Real GDP is forecast to increase by 1.8% yoy.

    Capital controls and significant international aid are important factors to keep the exchange rate stable. Also, a significant budget deficit (28% of GDP) requires international financial support to stop reliance on monetary budget financing. As the national bank stopped this financing policy in 2023, inflation slowly declined but risks remain. Significant cuts of the key policy rate are unlikely.

    In this context, the IMF programme is not only a crucial step to close the fiscal gap but also to coordinate reform and international aid efforts for Ukraine’s economic recovery and reconstruction.

  • Economic Monitor Moldova

    WA 17 | April 2023

    Moldova’s GDP declined by 5.9% yoy in 2022 reflecting both the weak agricultural year due to bad weather and the various impacts of the war in neighbouring Ukraine. Moldova was affected by a massive increase in inflation to 28.7% on average due to high-er energy and food prices as well as overall political insecurity in the context of the war, which inhibited investment. The exchange rate of the Moldovan Leu depreciated only moderately by 7.4% against the US dollar despite high inflation, which constituted a significant real appreciation of 10%. As a result, the competitiveness of Moldovan products was negatively affected. For 2023, the outlook is moderately positive with an expected GDP growth of 2% and inflation has started to slow down. However, significant downside risks persist as the war in Ukraine continues.

     

  • Economic Monitor Georgia

    WA 17 | March 2023

    The Georgian economy grew by 10.1% in 2022, the second consecutive year of double-digit growth. An important factor was the high influx of people from Russia and Belarus, which drove consumption. As a result of this influx, tourism revenues and money transfers also rose strongly. Additionally, increased activity in the transport sector contributed to growth. Growth of around 4.0% is expected for 2023, with the influx of people from Russia and Belarus remaining a determining factor.

  • Economic Monitor Tajikistan

    WA 1 | January 2023

    The Tajik economy presents itself in a fairly good condition – economic growth was strong last year and supported by all sectors of the economy, while inflation is very moderate according to official data, public finances are in a sound condition and the country has a current account surplus, due to metal exports and remittances. Geopolitical events, such as the war in Ukraine and sanctions imposed on Russia, do not show adverse effects so far.

  • Economic Monitor Kyrgyzstan

    WA 1 | October 2022

    The Kyrgyz economy grew strongly in 2022, despite the effects of the war in Ukraine, but high inflation is weighing on the country. Furthermore, there is an increasing export dependence on Russia.

  • Economic Monitor Kazakhstan

    WA 1 | October 2022

    The war in Ukraine so far has had not the expected negative impact on the Kazakh economy; rising oil prices even supported economic growth and exports. High inflation since the Corona pandemic remains a problem, prompting the Central Bank of Kazakhstan to significantly increase the key interest rate.