Go to main content

Economic Monitor

The Economic Monitor, published every six months, provides a concise overview of the overall economic situation. Apart from general macroeconomic trends, current economic policy issues are also covered.

  • Economic Monitor Ukraine

    WA 16 | August 2022

    Russia`s full-scale war has been causing dramatic human, social, and economic suffering. GDP is forecast to decline by 32% yoy in 2022. Public finance is strongly hit. The budget deficit stands at USD 5 bn per month covered by NBU’s monetary financing and intern. support (grants and loans). Thereby, inflation has strongly accelerated and is expected to exceed 30% yoy in December. The NBU introduced a fixed exchange rate regime and capital controls to set a nominal anchor. A strong decline in reserves (USD 7 bn) necessitated a devaluation of the exchange rate in July. Russia’s blockage of seaports leads to a strong export decline, increased devaluation pressure, and has global implications.

  • Economic Monitor Belarus

    WA 16 | August 2022

    The war in Ukraine and especially the Western sanctions have had a significant effect on the Belarusian economy. The country is currently in recession, with GET forecasting a real GDP decline of 6.2% in 2022. Inflation remains high and the fiscal situation is deteriorating. Real wages are declining for the first time since the 2015/2016 crisis. The difficult situation is also felt in the banking sector.

  • Economic Monitor Moldova

    WA 16 | August 2022

    Moldova is affected by several shocks due to the war in Ukraine. Energy and food prices, which, as a result, remain very high, and the consequent inflation pose a serious problem. The war has also partially disrupted foreign trade. Furthermore, Moldova accommodates a large number of refugees from Ukraine. The impact of these shocks results in a negative economic outlook for this year: GET forecasts a 0.4% decline in GDP with significant downside risks.

  • Economic Monitor Kosovo

    WA 03 | August 2022

    After a strong economic recovery in Kosovo in 2021, the economic outlook for 2022 is less favorable. The reasons for this are the expected high inflation due to higher import prices for energy and food. Related subsidies are expected to increase the budget deficit to 3.2% of GDP.

  • Economic Monitor Georgia

    WA 16 | August 2022

    Georgia’s economy has developed very positively despite the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia. According to the current estimate of the National Bank, growth this year will be at 9%. The main impact of the war is the influx of about 45,000 people from Russia and Belarus to Georgia. The additional spending by this group is a positive shock to the current account and partly explains why the Georgian economy has been relatively little affected by the war. Trade in goods with Russia is also stable, as Georgia is partly a substitute supplier of Western products.

  • Economic Monitor Armenia

    WA 08 | August 2022

    The war in Ukraine has had only a limited effect on the Armenian economy. After an initial downward correction, macroeconomic forecasts were again revised upward. The main positive shock is the significant influx of migrants and tourists from Russia, which in turn contributes positively to consumption. At the same time, however, this also poses negative challenges for inflation and social policy. GET currently forecasts a real GDP growth of 4.6% in 2022.

  • Economic Monitor Uzbekistan

    WA 07 | August 2022

    The war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia have so far had only a minor impact on Uzbekistan. Exports to Russia have risen significantly, contrary to expectations, and foreign remittances have also increased due to special effects. The Uzbek economy is therefore expected to grow significantly faster in 2022 than the 3.4% currently forecasted.