Economic Monitor Ukraine

Overview

• Real GDP: After a decline of 29.1% in 2022, moderate growth of 4.1% and 5.5% is projected in 2023 and 2024, respectively, but GDP is expected to remain 22% below pre-war level in 2024.
• Inflation decelerates stronger (Oct-23: 5.3%) than expected. The monetary policy easing cycle has accelerated.
• External sector: International financial aid has stabilised external balances, allowing for a gradual liberalization of capital controls and a return to a managed floating exchange rate regime.
• Public finances: Significant budget deficits amounting to ca. USD 40 bn in 2023 resp. 2024, implying further reliance on foreign aid.
• Foreign trade: Exports lag imports, which are recovering, leading to increasing trade balance (and current account) deficits.
• IMF programme: Anchor for macroeconomic stability to coordinate reforms and international aid efforts

Special issues

• Ukraine Facility of the EU: Support for budget and  accession, but not sufficient to close fiscal gap
• Banking sector: Stable functioning so far, but hardly prepared for its future role in reconstruction
• Business stimulation: Comprehensive response to challenges, but further measures and reforms needed
• Economic reconstruction: Progress in coordinating support, but financing issues still unresolved

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