Economic Monitor Belarus
After a strong recession in 2022, the Belarusian economy grew by 3.5% in 9M2023. Due to the declining base effect and low growth potential, GET expects a slowdown in the growth pace (2.0% in 2023), which will be followed by economic stagnation (0.1% in 2024). Inflation is currently very low (2.0% in Sep-23), but the medium-term outlook is uncertain as the current low rate depends on price controls. Foreign trade is characterised by increasing dependence on Russia.
WA 18 | November 2023
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- After a real GDP slump by -4.7% in 2022, the economy of BLR grew by 3.5% in 9M2023 due to capital investment and manufacturing, but also due to low base of 2022
- GET forecast: moderate growth by 2.0% in 2023 followed by economic stagnation in 2024 (+0.1%)
- Collapsing ICT sector (-15.8% yoy), was the main brake for the Belarusian GDP in 9M2023
- Inflation contained by price controls and exchange rate stabilisation (12.8% in 2022; 2.0% in Sep-23); significant risks remain in case of price control relaxation
- Declining revenues and reduced access to int. loans put pressure on public finances; default declared by int. rating agencies; ratings have been recently withdrawn due to insufficient data
- Imports rising much faster than exports in 9M2023; increasing dependence on RUS market with BLR trade being almost exclusively re-routed via RUS
