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Economic Monitor Armenia

Last year, the Armenian economy grew by an impressive 8.7% in real terms, largely due to the influx of Russian emigrants. Forecasts for the current year range between 5 and 6.1%, although the integration of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh could again be a growth factor. Inflation, which had been well above the central bank’s target in previous years, fell to just -0.6% last year. This slightly deflationary trend, caused in part by tight monetary policy, is not expected to continue this year or next. The dram will remain stable against the US dollar, while a higher budget deficit and a sharp rise in goods imports and exports are also expected in 2023.

  • Armenia
WA 11 | February 2024
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
  • 2023: real GDP growth of 8.7% yoy; no significant reversal of positive effects related to external demand/influx of migrants from RUS
  • 2024: economic growth forecast in a range of 5.0% (IMF) to 6.1% yoy (CBA); integration of 100,000 refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh might be a growth driver
  • Inflation significantly declined over the course of 2023 and stood at -0.6 % at the end of the year; this development goes hand in hand with a gradual easing of the monetary policy stance
  • Armenian dram remained mostly stable against the US dollar; international reserves declined to USD 3.6 bn (Jan-24), import cover down to only 3.6 months
  • Higher budget deficit in 2023 (3.1% of GDP) and a further increase in 2024 expected (4.6%), reflecting higher refugee spending; public debt has increased slightly (2023: 48.1% of GDP)
  • Strong increase of goods exports (2023: +55% yoy) and imports (+40% yoy); external trade is still dominated by re-export business
Special issues
  • Re-export of vehicles.Strong surge of vehicle re-exports since the start of the war in UKR. Significant economic relevance, as value addition takes place in ARM
  • Metals and mining. Important economic sector for ARM. Mining Sector Strategy for 2035 aims to reach international environmental, social and governance standards

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