Economic Monitor Ukraine
After a sharp decline in GDP in 2022, the economy experiences moderate growth of 5.2% in 2023 and 4% in 2024, mainly driven by rising consumption. Despite a current account deficit and growing trade deficits, foreign exchange reserves improve (2023: USD 40.5bn) and inflation falls to 5.1%. Nevertheless, massive budget deficits and rising public debt remain, making debt restructuring necessary, as well as a dependence on foreign financing. The new Black Sea corridor offers opportunities for exports, while regional disparities and labour market challenges due to migration require special attention.
WA 19 | February 2023
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- After a GDP decline of 28.8% in 2022, moderate growth of 5.2% in 2023 and 4% in 2024 is forecast
- All sectors grow in 2024; on the demand side driven by private consumption rather than investment
- Gradual exchange rate liberalisationgiven the increased reserves (2023: USD 40.5 bn)
- Current account deficit (2023: 4.6% of GDP) due to growing trade deficit
- Inflation declines to 5.1% at the end-23, policy rate remains high at 15%
- Massive cumulative budget deficit of USD 85 to 107 bn for 2024 to 2027 to be expected
- Financing by international donors (loans + grants) as domestic resources are limited
- Increase of public debt to ca. 100% of GDP makes restructuring necessary
- New corridor via Black Sea is positive for exports but imports increase strongly; increased role of GER investment guarantees
Special issues
Special topics
- Economic reconstruction: Large reconstruction costs, but financing issues still unresolved
- Regional disparities. Eastern regionsfell behind, western regions catch up
- Ukraine Facility by the EU. Key support for budget, but not sufficient to close fiscal gap
- Labour market and migration. Return intention declines –medium-term implicationsfor EU+UKR
