On the 4th of July Dr. Ricardo Giucci, Managing Director of Berlin Economics, in the framework of the “International Conference on EU – Republic of Moldova DCFTA Implementation – 5 years of regional perspectives and steps forward” presented a Berlin Economics study on the economic impact of the deep and comprehensive free trade areas (DCFTA) on Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia to high-level representatives of the EU Delegation and the Moldovan Government.
The main findings of the study relate to the development of exports and their composition as well as to foreign direct investment (FDI) from the EU.
“Between 2013 and 2018, exports of all three countries to the EU actually increased by more than 50%. In addition, the importance of the EU market as an export destination for Moldova and Ukraine has increased significantly”, says Dr. Ricardo Giucci.
Important results of the study in detail:
- Increase in exports: From 2013 to 2018, exports to the EU increased by 54% in real terms in Ukraine, 73% in Moldova and 115% in Georgia
- Stronger integration with the EU: The share of the EU in total exports increased from 56% to 74% for Moldova and from 27% to 42% in the case of Ukraine
- Improved commodity composition of exports: The high number of new products coming from Georgia and Ukraine exported to the EU shows a clear diversification of exports. In the case of Georgia, concentration of exports to the EU decreased by 43%
- Limited effect on FDI: The DCFTA has had only a limited impact on FDI, as the share of EU FDI has not changed significantly.
- Heterogenous development of trade with Russia: Trade with Russia has decreased heavily for Ukraine and Moldova, but increased significantly in the case of Georgia, which benefited from a lifting of Russian sanctions at the time of DCFTA
Apart from Chisinau, Berlin Economics presented the results of the study to an interested audience in Berlin, Brussels, Kiev and Tbilisi.