GET presents Economic Monitors for Ukraine and Moldova at BMWK

The development of both economies is influenced by the war in Ukraine.

Ukraine

After a sharp decline in GDP in 2022, the Ukrainian economy experiences moderate growth of 5.2% in 2023 and 4% in 2024, mainly driven by rising consumption. Despite a current account deficit and growing trade deficits, foreign exchange reserves improve (2023: USD 40.5bn) and inflation falls to 5.1%. Nevertheless, massive budget deficits and rising public debt remain, making debt restructuring necessary, as well as a dependence on foreign financing. The new Black Sea corridor offers opportunities for exports, while regional disparities and labour market challenges due to migration require special attention.

Moldova

The economic situation in Moldova is showing signs of recovery following the recession in 2022. Economic growth of 2.0% is forecast for 2023, driven by the agricultural sector. In 2024, growth could increase to 3.9% due to rising private consumption.
Despite a fall in the inflation rate to 4.2% by the end of 2023 and a lower budget deficit, challenges remain due to currency appreciation and a lack of growth stimulus.
Trade with Ukraine has declined, while exports of services have increased. Trade relations with the EU, which focus on plums and pork, and a possible switch from USD to EUR as the reference currency could offer new economic opportunities.

Stimulated discussions

The event was well received by both the in-person and online participants, which was also reflected in the lively discussions that followed the presentations. Numerous questions and comments centred on the economic development of the two countries against the backdrop of the geopolitical upheavals in the region and on EU rapprochement.

Link to Economic Monitor Ukraine

Link to Economic Monitor Moldova

Photo credit: BE Berlin Economics GmbH – All rights reserved