Parliamentary elections in Moldova – what to expect?
Parliamentary elections are set to take place in Moldova on February 24th. Similar to prior elections the government introduced new rules, which are supposed to influence the results somewhat. Among others, there is a new electoral system and the possibility to have referendums on election day.
According to polls, there are three main players: the pro-Russian Socialists’ Party with 35%-45% of votes, which are led informally by the pro-Russian president Igor Dodon. The pro-Western ACUM bloc around Maia Sandu and Andrei Nastase with 18%-30% of votes, and the ruling Democratic Party of Vlad Plahotniuc with 11%-21% of votes, which benefit from a dominant position in administration and recently appointed candidates for new terms to several independent institutions, such as the Constitutional Court. Three scenarios are imaginable after elections. First, a socialists-led government. They are close to a majority even alone and a coalition between Democrats and ACUM is difficult to imagine. A socialists-led government should bring Moldova closer to Russia. Second, the Democratic Party remains in power similar to the aftermath of 2014 elections, when MPs from other parties have joined the Democratic Party in large numbers. This would maintain the status-quo. And third, a deadlock leading to early elections can’t be ruled out.
