Wirtschaftsausblick Kirgisistan
Die kirgisische Volkswirtschaft ist 2022 trotz der Auswirkungen des Ukraine-Kriegs stark gewachsen, allerdings lastet eine hohe Inflation auf dem Land. Zudem gibt es eine zunehmende Exportabhängigkeit von Russland.
WA 1 | Oktober 2022
Makroökonomische Analysen und Prognosen
Auf Englisch und Russisch
Overview
- 2021: GDP growth of 3.6%
- 2022: no negative effect of war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia so far; instead, high growth of 7.7% in 7M 2022 due to increased gold production and robust remittances
- Rising food prices and high inflation (15.6% in Aug-22) lead to economic and social problems
- Volatile exchange rate: depreciation after beginning of the war in UKR, afterwards appreciation vs. the US dollar; Som appreciation also supported by influx of Russian citizens
- Imports up by 67% in 6M 2022, while exports remain flat; but expected resumption of gold exports should strongly increase exports
- Currently large current account deficit, but magnitude should decrease due to resumption of gold exports
- Low budget deficit of 1.3% of GDP in 2021; should be even lower in 2022; government debt of approx. 61% of GDP relatively high, but should decrease in light of high growth
Special topics
- Energy balance and trade. Potential to increase electricity trade with neighbours
- Kumtor mine dispute. After settlement of dispute in July 2022, resumption of exports imminent
