Wirtschaftsausblick Moldau
WA 21 | Februar 2025
Overview
- Only modest economic recovery from the massive recession in 2022
-2024: GDP estimated to grow by 2.6%, however forecast likely to be revised downwards
-2025: growth forecast at 3.0%, but recent energy shock likely to slow growth - Inflation amounted to 5% (i.e. within National Banks target) in 2024; however, recent energy shock has already pushed CPI-inflation up to 9% in Jan-25
Clear negative effect of energy shock on GDP and inflation, but also on other indicators
- Leu remains stable, despite multiple shocks to the economy
- Jan-25: National Bank adopted the euro as reference currency, reducing transaction costs
- Budget deficit of 4.0% of GDP planned for 2025, with considerable EU support in the context of the energy shock
- Trade deficit for goods widening with less re-exports to UKR and declining domestic exports
- ICT exports continue to expand
Special issue
- Real estate. Despite real estate prices growing fast between 2019-2024, no signs of housing bubble
