Newsletter Issue 07 | July – August 2020

Prospects for Uzbekistan’s energy sector

Uzbekistan’s energy sector still heavily depends on natural gas. As domestic reserves are depleting and the demand for electricity is increasing, the Uzbek government wants to diversify the country’s energy supply. The large-scale expansion of wind and photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation, the construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant and the replacement of the old power plant fleet with more efficient gas-fired plants are at the core of the government’s 2030 investment plan. Using an electricity system model, we show that the plan’s strong focus on inflexible baseload generation implies excessive system costs. We find that a higher deployment of flexible generators and renewables would reduce system costs. In 2019, a first PV tender had promising results.

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Newsletter Issue 06 | May – June 2020

Impact of COVID-19 on the Uzbek economy

The Uzbek economy is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2020 – before the COVID-19 crisis, an increase of 6% had been expected. The lower figure results from lower growth in consumption and investment as well as in services and industry. Agriculture is almost unaffected by the crisis.

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Economic Monitor Issue 03 | June 2020

Overview

  • 2020: positive growth of 1.5% despite COVID-19
  • Without the pandemic, growth would have been 6.0%
  • Strong increase in government spending to support the economy
  • Agriculture hardly affected by quarantine measures, growth of 2.6% expected
  • Slight decline of inflation
  • Sum depreciated by 6% against the USD in January-May 2020 as exports and remittances declined
  • High international reserves of USD 31.3 bn (May 2020) – 14 months of import coverage
  • Current account deficit expected to rise to 9.6% of GDP in 2020
  • FDI inflows will fall to 1.2% of GDP in 2020, after 3.9% in 2019
  • Budget deficit will increase to 5.6% of GDP in 2020
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Newsletter Issue 05 | March – April 2020

Small and medium-sized enterprises in Uzbekistan

The economic significance of private small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) for the Uzbek economy is still very limited. In the past, the state has primarily promoted private small enterprises with tax concessions and subsidised loans, but the government has now set itself the goal of increasing the importance of the private SME sector.

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Economic Monitor Issue 02 | February 2020

Topics:

  • Pharma park and cluster. Roadmap presented to government
  • Reform of state-owned enterprises. Important future reform area
  • Energy sector. Investment in infrastructure and energy generation needed
  • Doing Business Index. Progress in improving investment and business climate
  • SME support. Rethinking of SME funding policy necessary
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Newsletter Issue 03 | November – December 2019

Export potential for Uzbek textile and apparel

The manufacture of textile and apparel is among the key sectors of the Uzbek economy. In 2018, it ac-counted for 17% of manufacturing and provided 11% of goods exports. The main destination of Uzbek exports are neighbouring countries. Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Iran absorb 81% of the sector’s exports.

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Newsletter Issue 02 | September – October 2019

Cluster-oriented reform model for free economic zones

The first free economic zone (FEZ) in Uzbekistan was established in 2008. Since then, 20 additional FEZ were created throughout the country. Drawing on international experience, a reform process has been initiated in 2018 to increase the effectiveness of the zones. As one reform option, a cluster-oriented model has been examined.

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Economic Monitor Issue 01 | August 2019

Topics:

  • Development Strategy 2017 2021: Implementation of comprehensive reform agenda in 5 key areas
  • Tax reform: Positive implications for investment and business climate, but also for the state
  • Banking sector: Reforms in this state dominated sector are indispensable
  • Export potential of textile products: Identification of promising products
  • Reform of free economic zones: Cluster approach offers the chance to increase effectiveness
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Newsletter Issue 01 | July – August 2019

Positive economic outlook thanks to reform dynamics

For two years now, Uzbekistan is in the focus of many international observers. President Mirziyoyev has ini-tiated a comprehensive reform and modernisation process, which aims to transform the country from a closed, state-centred economy into an open market economy.

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