Economic Monitor Issue 05 | June 2021

Overview

  • 2020: economic growth of 1.6% despite pandemic
  • 2021: return to high growth of 5.0%
  • Strong increase of investments (7.0%) and services (7.7%) expected in 2021
  • Decreasing inflation from ca. 11% by end 2020 to single digit by end of 2021
  • Real wage growth slowed down during pandemic, but is expected to speed up again in 2021
  • Stable exchange rate vs the US dollar in 2021 and very high international reserves
  • Growth of remittances by 34% in 4M 2021 indicates recovery of migrants’ host countries
  • Strong recovery of trade: imports increased by 10%, exports by 40% (without gold) in 4M 2021
  • Budget deficit with 4.4% of GDP in 2020 lower than expected, 5.5% forecast for 2021; no threat to fiscal sustainability

Topics

  • Agriculture. Reforms are starting to bear fruit, but long way ahead
  • Energy. No significant decrease of gas consumption expected until 2030, according to own forecast
  • Exports. Bottlenecks for exporting fruits and vegetables as well as apparel to the EU
  • Banking sector. Far reaching reforms including plans for large-scale privatisation
  • COVID-19. Case numbers largely under control, but only slowly vaccination