Economic Monitor Issue 04 | January 2021

Overview

  • Main reason for economic slowdown: lower investment
  • Positive contributions to GDP of government consumption (+3.6% yoy) and agricultural sector (+3.0% yoy)
  • 2021: GDP forecast to pick up by 5.0%
  • Inflation declined to ca. 11% by end 2020 and opened space for CBU to decrease its policy rate by 2 pp to currently 14%; CBU targets an inflation of 5% by end 2023
  • Depreciation of Sum by 8.5% vs USD in 2020 in line with inflation
  • International reserves (gold and FX) increased to USD 32.9 bn or 14 months of imports; main reason: higher gold price
  • Current account deficit below 6.4% of GDP in 2020 due to rise in remittances
  • Exports down by 6%; gold exports compensated decrease of other items; imports dropped by 9%
  • Budget deficit increased to high 7.5% of GDP in 2020, but no threat to fiscal sustainability

Topics

  • Energy. GET forecasts electricity consumption to rise by 24% to 46% until 2030
  • Migration. Labour migration will reduce necessity to create jobs in Uzbekistan by 50,000 per year
  • Exports. High potential to increase exports to EU for fruits and vegetables, metals and textiles
  • COVID-19. Development of cases, domestic measures, economic support and international financial support
Download Economic Monitor 04/2021