Economic Monitor Issue 03 | June 2020

Overview

  • 2020: positive growth of 1.5% despite COVID-19
  • Without the pandemic, growth would have been 6.0%
  • Strong increase in government spending to support the economy
  • Agriculture hardly affected by quarantine measures, growth of 2.6% expected
  • Slight decline of inflation
  • Sum depreciated by 6% against the USD in January-May 2020 as exports and remittances declined
  • High international reserves of USD 31.3 bn (May 2020) – 14 months of import coverage
  • Current account deficit expected to rise to 9.6% of GDP in 2020
  • FDI inflows will fall to 1.2% of GDP in 2020, after 3.9% in 2019
  • Budget deficit will increase to 5.6% of GDP in 2020

Topics

  • Agriculture. Dominance of dehkan farms and most recent reforms
  • Energy. Too much focus on base load generation in the 2030 investment plan
  • Support for SME. Recommendations for the strategy of the newly established SME support agency
  • COVID-19. Development of cases, domestic measures, economic support, int. financial support
Download Newsletter 06/2020