Economic Monitor Issue 14 | June 2021

Overview

  • Quick recovery: GDP growth of 4.3% in 2021 mainly driven by domestic demand.
  • Moderate pre-crisis growth rates around 3.5% expected for next years. Increasing reform ambition is necessary.
  • Inflation currently at 9.5%, way above target range (4-6%). NBU has started hiking policy rate to reduce inflation.
  • Expansionary fiscal policy continued during recovery. Consolidation and IMF-programme remain important.
  • Recovery of external trade driven by favourable terms of trade. ICT now leading service exports.
  • Current account surplus remains in 2021. Stable exchange rate and reserves.

Topics

IMF programme. IMF-support remains vital. Reinforced reform effort is necessary.
Export finance. Many obstacles reported by enterprises in a survey. Efficient and strong ECA is needed.
ACAA with EU. Positive direct and indirect effects expected. Institutional alignment is the main challenge.
Labour market. Ability to recover from crises would benefit from extending short-time work scheme.
COVID-19. 7-day incidence is declining. Long way to go before mass vaccination.

Download Economic Monitor 14/2021