Economic Monitor Issue 12 | June 2020

Overview

  • GDP: Due to COVID-19, the Ukrainian economy is forecast to decline by 7.0% in 2020, followed by a small growth of 1.1% in 2021
  • The significant decline of GDP is a combination of domestic lockdown measures as well as a deterioration in the global environment
  • Due to significant progress with macroeconomic stability during recent years, Ukraine faces this global crisis much better prepared than in the past
  • A flexible exchange rate acts as a shock absorber and protects international reserves (Jun-20: USD 25.4 bn)v
  • The current account will almost be balanced in 2020 (-0.3% of GDP), as imports shrink faster than exports
  • But: lower FDI and reversal of private capital inflows create problems for financing the current account deficit
  • Low inflation (May-20: 1.7%) allowed the NBU to decrease the policy rate, supporting the economy
  • Public finances: after years of moderate deficits, the budget deficit is set to rise to 7.5% of GDP in 2020 as a result of the crisis

Topics

  • Economic impact of COVID-19. Detailed analysis of the impact of COVID-19 under different scenarios
  • IMF programme. New SBA is important for budget financing and obtaining further international support
  • Land market. New law is a small step in the right direction, but short-term economic impact very small
  • Banking law. New legislation prevents the return of insolvent “zombie” banks to the market
  • COVID-19. Development of cases, lockdown measures, policy response, international financial support
Download Economic Monitor 12/2020