Economic Monitor

Economic Monitor Issue 14 | June 2021

Overview

  • Quick recovery: GDP growth of 4.3% in 2021 mainly driven by domestic demand.
  • Moderate pre-crisis growth rates around 3.5% expected for next years. Increasing reform ambition is necessary.
  • Inflation currently at 9.5%, way above target range (4-6%). NBU has started hiking policy rate to reduce inflation.
  • Expansionary fiscal policy continued during recovery. Consolidation and IMF-programme remain important.
  • Recovery of external trade driven by favourable terms of trade. ICT now leading service exports.
  • Current account surplus remains in 2021. Stable exchange rate and reserves.
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Economic Monitor Issue 13 | January 2021

Overview

  • Due to COVID-19, GDP declined by 4.6% in 2020: a moderate decline in international comparison. In 2021, growth of 4.3% is expected
  • Stability of the external sector during the crisis: current account surplus (2020: 4.7% of GDP), moderate exchange rate dynamics, international reserves reached their highest level since 2012 (USD 29 bn)
  • Inflation is currently at the 5% target of the central bank, policy rates were decreased to a historic low of 6% to support economic recovery
  • During the crisis, the budget deficit considerably increased (2020 estimate: 5.6% of GDP), and will decrease only slightly in 2021, public debt meanwhile increased to 65.7% of GDP
  • International trade declined by 9.1% after 11M2020: stronger decrease of imports (-12,9%) than exports (-3,5%)
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Economic Monitor Issue 12 | June 2020

Overview

  • GDP: Due to COVID-19, the Ukrainian economy is forecast to decline by 7.0% in 2020, followed by a small growth of 1.1% in 2021
  • The significant decline of GDP is a combination of domestic lockdown measures as well as a deterioration in the global environment
  • Due to significant progress with macroeconomic stability during recent years, Ukraine faces this global crisis much better prepared than in the past
  • A flexible exchange rate acts as a shock absorber and protects international reserves (Jun-20: USD 25.4 bn)v
  • The current account will almost be balanced in 2020 (-0.3% of GDP), as imports shrink faster than exports
  • But: lower FDI and reversal of private capital inflows create problems for financing the current account deficit
  • Low inflation (May-20: 1.7%) allowed the NBU to decrease the policy rate, supporting the economy
  • Public finances: after years of moderate deficits, the budget deficit is set to rise to 7.5% of GDP in 2020 as a result of the crisis
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Economic Monitor Issue 11 | January 2020

Topics:

  • Labour migration. Increasing migration supports growth in real wages.
  • Reform agenda of the government. Ambitious economic policy goals require comprehensive reforms
  • IMF programme. New agreement is a positive signal and supports the reform agenda
  • Reform proposals of German business in Ukraine. Update of our study shows progress in improving the investment climate
  • Gas transit deal. Agreement between Naftogaz and Gazprom on gas transit is a positive development
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