Economic Monitor Issue 14 | June 2021

Overview

  • Political uncertainty continues ahead of the Parliamentary elections on 11 July
  • Economy is expected to rebound despite uncertainty: we forecast GDP growth of 4.8% for 2021
  • Growth to be driven mainly by strong consumption and export dynamic
  • Inflation remained stable throughout crisis, now slowly picking up and moving towards NBM target corridor; forecast for 2021 (average): 2.5%
  • Exchange rather stable throughout the COVID-crisis and higher FX reserves on the back of donor lending
  • Budget deficit to reach 4.0% of GDP in 2021, after 5.1% in 2020
  • EU just announced a very large recovery package for Moldova of EUR 600 m, including macro financial assistance, grants and investments

Special Issues

  • New COVID-19 cases have been declining steadily; vaccination campaign started in March, to date 9.1% of population has been vaccinated at least once
  • Remittances have been robust throughout the crisis, especially from EU countries; stabilising factor
  • Moldovan IT-sector, still small compared to neighbours, holds large potential for development
Download Economic Monitor 14/2021