Economic Monitor Issue 13 | January 2021 (Update February 2021)

Overview

  • New President Maia Sandu took office on 24 Dec 2020; after the resignation of PM Ion Chicu, Aureliu Ciocoi was appointed acting PM; parliamentary elections expected in spring 2021
  • In 2020, Moldova’s economy suffered twin shocks with COVID-19 and a severe drought in the agricultural sector; we forecast GDP to decline by 6.7%
  • Recovery in 2021: GDP forecast to grow by 4.5%
  • Inflation remained within the National Bank’s target corridor in 2020; however, it is expected to decline to 1.8% in 2021
  • Budget deficit is expected to reach 5.4% of GDP in 2020, due to decreased revenues and increased expenditures; available sources of external financing (IMF, EU) only partially used

Special issues

  • Newly registered COVID-19 cases are still high, while restrictions have been eased over time
  • External assistance worth 3.2% of GDP received; potential for additional 5.9% of GDP, incl. new IMF programme of USD 558 m, if conditionality is met; crucial for economic prospects in 2021/2022
  • Agriculture: severe drought weighs on overall economic development in 2020
  • Banking sector: after successful reforms, banks are in good shape to weather the COVID effect
  • FDI: COVID-19 reduced global FDI flows, but new trends could offer opportunities for Moldova
Download Economic Monitor Issue 13/2021