Publications

Newsletter Issue 58 | March 2020

Reform proposals from European Business in Moldova

Moldova still lags behind comparable economies in GDP growth and investment. The main reason for this are deficits in the investment climate, requiring measures and reforms in many areas. In a joint study, the German Economic Team (GET) and the European Business Association (EBA) presented 21 proposals for reform, aimed at improving the business and investment climate and hence strengthening investment in Moldova.

(more…)

Newsletter Issue 57 | February 2020

Robust growth in 2019 despite political instability

The Moldovan economy grew by an estimated 4.2% in 2019, which is comparable to previous years. Growth was primarily driven by investments which increased by around 16%. Amidst buoyant investment activity, the construction sector showed the highest growth rate among the main sectors of the economy, increasing by 19% in 2019.

(more…)

Economic Monitor Issue 11 | January 2020

Topics:

  • New government. Socialist minority government still has to prove its commitment to reforms
  • Improving the business climate.Proposals in cooperation with the European Business Association
  • Reform concept for the Investment Promotion Agency. To make the Investment Promotion Agency more efficient, a target group-oriented approach should be followed
  • Intercity bus market in Moldova. A strategic planning process is required, which should include an integrated mobility master plan
(more…)

Newsletter Issue 56 | November – December 2019

Change of government in Moldova, again

Maia Sandu’s government was dismissed in a no-confidence vote on 12 November, after her government assumed responsibility for a bill that would have put the Prime Minister in charge of the short-list of candidates for the Prosecutor General. This proved to be a no-go for her coalition partner, the Socialists Party, who were long insisting on a government reset. A new cabinet was appointed two days later, with the support of the weakened, but still numerous Democratic Party. Moldova’s Western partners expressed worry, reiterated the need to fight corruption, but said cooperation would continue based on principles of conditionality and respect for rule of law.

(more…)

Newsletter Issue 55 | September – October 2019

Current economic situation: investment-driven growth

Economic growth is expected to reach 4.2% in 2019, thus surpassing earlier forecasts. The main reason for high growth is the strong increase of investment by over 20% in the first half of 2019. This development is reflected by an expansion in the construction sector, which grew by ca. 27%.

(more…)

Economic Monitor Issue 10 | September 2019

Topics:

  • The new government. Big challenges ahead for the unusual coalition of pro-Russian Socialists and pro-EU block ACUM
  • Economic effects of the DCFTA. After 5 years of implementation we see a strong positive effect on exports to EU
  • Reorientation of Moldovan Investment Promotion Agency. The reorganization also requires an adaptation of tasks and processes
(more…)

Policy Briefing 03/2019

EU tariff rate quotas and anti-circumvention trigger volumes for Moldovan products: Setting priorities for possible increases

(more…)

Newsletter Issue 54 | July – August 2019

Moldova’s new government – a country less divided, for now

An unlikely coalition was formed between the pro-Russian Socialists and the pro-EU ACUM bloc, after what looked like a geopolitical consensus between the USA, EU and Russia to oust Vladimir Plahotniuc, who had crossed too many lines lately.

(more…)

Newsletter Issue 53 | May – June 2019

The effect of the DCFTA on Moldovan exports to the EU

Moldova signed a deep and comprehensive free trade agreement (DCFTA) with the EU in 2014, which came into force in the same year. After almost five years of implementation, we analyse the impact of the DCFTA on Moldovan exports to the EU.

(more…)

Newsletter Issue 52 | March – April 2019

Household over-indebtedness with micro-financial institutions

The German Economic Team Moldova together with the National Commission for Financial Markets has collected data on household over-indebtedness with micro-financial institutions. Although the data in our sample is probably only an approximation of the actual situation, it is closing an information gap.

(more…)

Newsletter Issue 51 | January – February 2019

Parliamentary elections in Moldova – what to expect?

Parliamentary elections are set to take place in Moldova on February 24th. Similar to prior elections the government introduced new rules, which are supposed to influence the results somewhat. Among others, there is a new electoral system and the possibility to have referendums on election day.

(more…)

Economic Monitor Issue 9 | January 2019

Topics:

  • Monetary policy normalisation in leading economies. So far no impact on Moldova, due to low foreign debt and prudent policy in recent years; nevertheless need to be cautious
  • Perspectives of agricultural insurance. Current system had only limited success, we recommend a simple alternative or a gradual reform
  • Household over-indebtedness. Some microfinance institutions contribute to increasing household over-indebtedness through irresponsible lending
  • Effect of the DCFTA. Strong exports growth to the EU, higher FDI from EU
(more…)

Economic Monitor Issue 8 | June 2018

Topics:

  • Exports development. EU market remains the key driver for Moldovan exports. EU direct investment boosts exports from the automotive sector (esp. wiring harness)
  • EU tariff rate quotas. Recommendation to increase quotas for grapes and plums
  • Transparency of consumer loans. Intransparent use of the annual percentage rate of charge for consumer loans. Legal framework and supervision should be strengthened
(more…)

Policy Paper 01/2018

Increasing consumer loan transparency: The role of the annual percentage rate of charge

Transparency in advertising of consumer loans is not only important for consumer protection reasons, but also for the stability of the financial sector. The average percentage rate of charge (APR) is, in this regard, a highly useful tool as it includes all the costs of a credit and expresses them in a single number, thus makes different loan offers easily comparable for borrowers. In this policy paper we analyse the transparency situation in the Moldovan consumer credit market with a focus on appropriate use of the APR in advertising.

(more…)

Economic Monitor Issue 7 | January 2018

Topics:

  • Banking sector. Stabilisation reached after banking fraud, crediting of the private sector still decreasing
  • Foreign direct investment. Role of FDI for the economy so far underestimated, as a study of GET Moldova has shown
  • Economic reforms. Comprehensive reforms to be assessed positively; too early for final assessment
  • Increasing tax revenues. Increase in tax revenues can at least partly be attributed to reforms; positive example for structural reforms
(more…)