Policy Briefing 06/2018

Economic impact of Turkish Lira depreciation on Georgia

Summary:

  • Large nominal TRY depreciation vs. GEL (42%)
  • Real TRY/GEL depreciation is only 20%; thus: sizeable, but not so large
  • Impact so far: less GEO exports of consumer & capital goods; more imports from TUR; both in line with the theory
  • But: higher GEO exports of raw materials and intermediary goods to TUR; reason: global value chain effect
  • Estimated impact in the future: moderate impact on aggregate trade in goods, but strong sectoral impact on textile exports (esp. T-Shirts)
  • Services, remittances: moderate impact expected
  • FDI, banking: little impact expected
  • However: impact would change in case of higher depreciation of TRY and/or recession in TUR
  • Thus: need to monitor the situation
Download Policy Briefing 06/2018