Overview
- GDP to drop by 4.0% in 2020; pre-COVID forecast: +4.3%
- Consumption to drop heavily, also due to much lower remittances (Apr: -42.3%)
- Exports to contract by 24%; but effect exaggerated due to re-exports of cars and copper
- Tourists revenues strongly affected; perspective for Jul/Aug still not clear
- Current account deficit to reach 11.3% of GDP; pre-COVID forecast: 5.3%
- Exchange rate at ca. 3.0 GEL/USD; sizeable depreciation in March followed by appreciation
- NBG’s policy rate at 8.5%; limited room for reduction due to higher-than-target inflation risks
- Government reacted to crisis with strong anticyclical fiscal measures
- As a result, budget deficit will amount to 8.5% of GDP in 2020; pre-COVID plan: 2.4%
- IMF programme augmented by USD 325 m, incl. USD 200 m for budget support
Topics
- Insolvency. On the way to a modern legislation
- Income distribution. Progress in poverty reduction and regional development
- COVID-19. Development of cases, domestic measures, economic support, int. financial support