Policy Documents

Economic Monitor Issue 14 | June 2021

Overview

  • Moderate GDP recovery of 3.5% in 2021, after drop by 6.2% in 2020
  • Outlook for 2021 subdued due to lockdown in Q1-2021 and limited prospects for tourism
  • Current account deficit over 10% of GDP in 2020/2021, due to weak tourism revenues
  • Lari depreciated by 14% in 2020, but relatively stable around GEL/USD 3.30 in 2021
  • Inflation on the rise on back of Lari depreciation (pass-through) and higher commodity prices
  • Reaction by NBG: policy rate up by 1.5 pp in 2021; current rate: 9.5%
  • Remittances continue positive trend from second half of 2020; stabilising factor
  • Government continues to provide sizeable COVID-19 fiscal stimulus (2.3% of GDP in 2021)
  • Successful recent placement of USD 500 m Eurobond (5-year maturity, yield: 2.875%)
  • IMF programme successfully completed, new programme still in discussion
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Policy Paper 01/2020

Income distribution and poverty reduction in Georgia – A comparative analysis

This paper analyses income distribution and poverty reduction in Georgia in the period 2010 to 2017/2018. As we have no data for 2019, our findings do not relate to the most recent distributional policies of the Georgian government. Our results suggest that while Georgia has substantially reduced poverty and income inequality, continuous monitoring of the situation would be helpful.

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Policy Briefing 07/2019

Export opportunities for Georgia generated by the membership in the PEM Convention

Part 1: opportunities for intensified exports of intermediate products

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Technical Note 02/2019

Export potential of Georgia’s agro-food sector on other non-CIS markets: top-10 destinations for each of selected top-20 products

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Technical Note 01/2019

Export potential of Georgia’s agro-food sector on the EU market: top-10 destinations for each of selected top-20 products

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Policy Briefing 06/2018

Economic impact of Turkish Lira depreciation on Georgia

Summary:

  • Large nominal TRY depreciation vs. GEL (42%)
  • Real TRY/GEL depreciation is only 20%; thus: sizeable, but not so large
  • Impact so far: less GEO exports of consumer & capital goods; more imports from TUR; both in line with the theory
  • But: higher GEO exports of raw materials and intermediary goods to TUR; reason: global value chain effect
  • Estimated impact in the future: moderate impact on aggregate trade in goods, but strong sectoral impact on textile exports (esp. T-Shirts)
  • Services, remittances: moderate impact expected
  • FDI, banking: little impact expected
  • However: impact would change in case of higher depreciation of TRY and/or recession in TUR
  • Thus: need to monitor the situation
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Policy Study 02/2018

Potential in the development of non-bank finance: experience from EU countries in central and south eastern Europe

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Policy Briefing 06/2017

Approximation of capital markets legislation to EU standards: Commitments under the DCFTA and priorities in Georgia’s capital market strategy

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Policy Paper 03/2017

Economic impact of new energy performance standards for buildings

The Energy Performance of Buildings Directive 2010/31/EU (EPBD) and the Energy Efficiency Directive 2012/27/EU (EED) will require a significant adjustment of Georgia’s energy efficiency policies with a profound effect on the building sector. Among the numerous measures which both directives contain, the requirement to set new legal minimum energy efficiency standards for newly constructed buildings and also buildings undergoing major refurbishment is the single measure with the largest economic impact.

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Policy Paper 02/2017

The creative sector in Georgia: Situation, potential and policy issues

Georgia has a rich cultural tradition as well as an affinity for unique designs. Can this creativity be an economic asset? This can in principle be assessed by using the standard “creative industries” approach, which measures several industries in the creative sector. Due to data limitations, we develop and use a slightly simplified method based on the international approach for Georgia.

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Policy Briefing 02/2017

Unlocking the export potential of Georgian agriculture

Aim of this Policy Briefing: Recommendations for boosting agri-food exports

Structure of the Policy Briefing:

  • Analysis of current agri-food exports
  • Identification of potential
  • Constraints on current exports
  • Options for producers
  • Policy recommendations
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Policy Paper 01/2017

Unlocking the export potential of Georgian agriculture

Georgia’s agri-food export is concentrated in few products and few undemanding markets, making it highly vulnerable to shocks on a small number of commodity and geographical markets. At the same time, the diversity of climatic conditions and ample water resources create significant growth and diversification potential for Georgian agriculture. Georgian conditions appear especially suitable for the production and export of high-value niche products as the land mass is small and fragmented, both due to topographic conditions and present ownership patterns.

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Policy Briefing 01/2017

Developing creative industries: Approaches and international experience

Structure:

  1. Contribution of culture and creativity to the economy
  2. Definitions: from creative industries to creative economy
  3. Why develop the creative industries and creative economy?
  4. Supporting creative industries and creative economies
  5. International experience
  6. Towards a creative economy approach for Georgia
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