Economic Monitor

Economic Monitor Issue 12 | June 2020

Overview

  • GDP to drop by 4.0% in 2020; pre-COVID forecast: +4.3%
  • Consumption to drop heavily, also due to much lower remittances (Apr: -42.3%)
  • Exports to contract by 24%; but effect exaggerated due to re-exports of cars and copper
  • Tourists revenues strongly affected; perspective for Jul/Aug still not clear
  • Current account deficit to reach 11.3% of GDP; pre-COVID forecast: 5.3%
  • Exchange rate at ca. 3.0 GEL/USD; sizeable depreciation in March followed by appreciation
  • NBG’s policy rate at 8.5%; limited room for reduction due to higher-than-target inflation risks
  • Government reacted to crisis with strong anticyclical fiscal measures
  • As a result, budget deficit will amount to 8.5% of GDP in 2020; pre-COVID plan: 2.4%
  • IMF programme augmented by USD 325 m, incl. USD 200 m for budget support
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Economic Monitor Issue 11 | January 2020

Topics:

  • Agro-food exports: The role of transport and logistics sector
  • DCFTA: Sectoral analysis reveals sizeable DCFTA effect on EU exports to Georgia
  • Banking sector: Georgian banking sector on a more stable footing
  • Capital markets: Georgian capital markets remain underdeveloped
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Economic Monitor Issue 9 | January 2019

Topics

  • Presidential elections. New President has been elected
  • Banking. Measures to curb household debt
  • Turkey. So far only moderate effect of depreciation of Turkish Lira on Georgia
  • Pension reform. Start on 1 January 2019
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Economic Monitor Issue 8 | June 2018

Topics

  • Mining of cryptocurrencies. Own estimation of contribution to GDP
  • Mid-term fiscal plan. Higher public investment combined with a lower budget deficit
  • Banking sector. Stability and concentration
  • De-dollarisation. Partial success in 2017
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Economic Monitor Issue 7 | January 2018

Topics

  • Inventory write-offs. State should allow enterprises to write off actual losses; verification by plausibility checks founded on databases
  • Remittances. Increase by 20% in Jan-Sep 2017 supports private consumption
  • Doing Business Ranking. Improvement from rank 16 to rank 9
  • Capital market development in the context of the DCFTA. Possibility for larger enterprises to mobilise capital
  • Introduction of capital-funded pensions. Successful introduction of capital-based pensions only in case of simultaneous reform of the 1. pension pillar
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Economic Monitor Issue No. 6 | June 2017

Topics

  • New IMF programme signed. Important stability signal for investors
  • GET Georgia recommends economic policy priorities. Comprehensive package of measures by all relevant government departments is needed
  • Unlocking the export potential of Georgian agriculture. Land consolidation and productive alliances can help exploit the export potential
  • DCFTA implementation in Georgia. Implementation mostly on track
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