Ukraine

Growth of 2.1% and 2.6% is expected for 2026 and 2027, respectively, driven by private consumption and investment. Inflation is rising again due to the effects of the Iran conflict, prompting the continuation of restrictive monetary policy. The current account deficit is set to increase sharply to 21% of GDP in 2026 due to rising imports. A new EU support loan is crucial for covering the budget gap and safeguarding external stability.