Tashkent International Investment Forum

On the 2nd and 3rd of May 2024, the Tashkent International Investment Forum (TIIF) took place, featuring a keynote opening by Uzbekistan’s President, Shavkat Mirziyoyev. As part of the German Economic Team project, Berlin Economics participated in a high-ranking panel discussion on Uzbekistan’s green transition.

The panel, moderated by Aida Sitdikova, Director of Energy Eurasia at EBRD, included esteemed speakers such as:
• Abdulla Zayed, Director of Development and Investment at Masdar (Abu Dhabi Future Energy Company)
• Umid Mamadaminov, Deputy Minister of Energy of Uzbekistan
• Ivo Bols, President of Europe and Africa Region at Air Products
• Hela Cheikhrouhou, Regional Vice President at IFC – International Finance Corporation
• Marc Girard, Senior Vice President at EDF
• Marco Arcelli, CEO of ACWA Power
• Robert Kirchner, Deputy Leader of the German Economic Team at Berlin Economics

The presentation by German Economic Team highlighted Uzbekistan’s growing electricity needs, driven by both an increasing population and vibrant economy. According to state projections, the electricity demand will almost double and reach 120.8 TWh in 2030 compared to 2020. To meet this demand, Uzbekistan is looking to increase its power generation capacity, while fulfilling international climate commitments. The proposed cost-optimal model suggests high integration of renewable energy sources, i.e. 12.7 GW of solar and 7.3 GW of wind by 2030 (20 GW in total).

The German Economic Team has formulated a set of recommendations to balance critical objectives. These include the continued liberalisation of the energy market to attract investments through tariff reforms, the provision of targeted social transfers, and the creation of a predictable, transparent business environment. The acceleration of renewable energy and battery storage deployment by 2030 is advised to reduce costs, gas consumption, and emissions. Furthermore, it is recommended that long-term electricity plans be coordinated with neighbouring countries to benefit from exporting excess supply and importing during scarcity, aligning with the seasonal variability of renewable sources. It is also important to avoid stranded assets by ensuring that current investments in energy infrastructure remain viable in a future dominated by renewable energy, aligning with long-term sustainability goals. For example, investments in gas peakers and other flexible power solutions should be adaptable to operate on green hydrogen.