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Economic slowdown continues as positive shocks fade out

  • Economic Monitor Armenia

    WA 11 | February 2024

    Last year, the Armenian economy grew by an impressive 8.7% in real terms, largely due to the influx of Russian emigrants. Forecasts for the current year range between 5 and 6.1%, although the integration of refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh could again be a growth factor. Inflation, which had been well above the central bank’s target in previous years, fell to just -0.6% last year. This slightly deflationary trend, caused in part by tight monetary policy, is not expected to continue this year or next. The dram will remain stable against the US dollar, while a higher budget deficit and a sharp rise in goods imports and exports are also expected in 2023.

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