Uzbekistan maintains high growth amid external uncertainty
The Uzbek economy grew strongly by 6.5% last year and is expected to grow by close to 6% this year. Growth is mainly driven by private consumption and investments. Inflation remained elevated at 10.3% yoy in March 2025 but is expected to gradually decrease to around 8% by the end of the year.
Goods exports grew only slightly last year but accelerated to a growth of 21% yoy in the first three months of 2025. Goods imports, on the other hand, stagnated last year and declined by 5% yoy in the first three months of 2025. The current account deficit narrowed to 5.0% of GDP in 2024. Strongly growing remittances contributed to the decline of the deficit.
The budget deficit fell to 3.2% of GDP in 2024 and is expected to remain at around 3% of GDP this year. The reduction can be partly attributed to the increase of energy tariffs and thus lower spending on energy subsidies. The current global uncertainties, particularly in trade policy, did not impact economic development in Uzbekistan so far.
Growth remains high
The Uzbek economy grew by 6.5% yoy in real terms in 2024. For this year the IMF forecasts a continued strong growth of just under 6%.
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In 2024, the primary drivers of the expansion of economic activity were private consumption and investments, which increased by 7.5% and 27.6% yoy, respectively. Sectoral growth was broad-based. Both the manufacturing and services sectors grew by 7.7%. Only the production of natural gas and crude oil declined slightly, which might be related to decreasing natural gas reserves. Agriculture, as in previous years, grew below average at 3.1% yoy.
In 2025, investments and private consumption will remain the main drivers of growth. According to preliminary data, GDP increased by 6.8% yoy in 3M2025.
Inflation elevated but will decline in the medium term
Inflation has been on a downward trend since end of 2022 but increased in May 2024 due to the increase of energy tariffs and has remained at around 10% since then. In March 2025, the Central Bank of Uzbekistan raised its policy rate by 0.5 percentage points to high 14% p.a. The decision aims to contain inflation expectations in order to reduce inflation to the target of 5% in the medium term.
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Both the Central Bank as well as international institutions forecast inflation to decrease to 8% by the end of this year and reach the target of 5% by the end of 2027.
Current account deficit declined
In 2024, trade developed unevenly. Goods exports grew by around 3% to USD 19.7 bn. Gold plays an important role in Uzbekistan’s exports, accounting for around 40% of total goods exports and strongly influencing the trade balance. In 2024, gold exports declined yoy. Non-gold goods exports on the other hand grew by 11% yoy. This growth was driven by higher exports of food products, fuels, and chemical goods. In 3M2025, goods export growth accelerated to 21% yoy, mainly due to increased gold exports.
Goods imports amounted to USD 35.2 bn in 2024, which was slightly less than in the previous year. In 3M2025 the decline accelerated with imports decreasing 5% compared to the same period of the previous year.
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The current account deficit declined to to 5.0% of GDP in 2024 (compared to 7.6% of GDP in 2023). This development was largely driven by a strong increase in remittances. Remittances reached USD 14.8 bn in 2024, a 30% increase compared to the previous year. Remittances from Russia still accounted for the lion share (around 77%) of total inflows. However, this share has declined in recent years, indicating a larger diversification of remittances. In 2025, the current account deficit is expected to remain at around 5% of GDP.
Fiscal deficit declined
The fiscal deficit based on the broad IMF definition which also takes into account policy-based lending declined significantly in 2024 to 3.2% of GDP. A key reason for the reduction was the substantial adjustment of energy tariffs in May 2024, which lowered the cost of subsidies. Another energy tariff adjustment is planned for May of this year. For 2025, a moderate budget deficit of 3% of GDP is expected. Reducing borrowing is also sensible in light of relatively high interest rates, which raises refinancing costs.
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In 2024, public debt stood at a moderate 32% of GDP and is expected to remain at this level in the coming years, according to forecasts.
Conclusion and outlook
The Uzbek economy sustains high economic growth and forecasts show a stable and sustainable economic development in the medium and long term, provided that the reform trajectory is continued.
The potential impacts of the current global uncertainty, particularly regarding trade policy, are difficult to assess. Although Uzbekistan’s trade with the United States is relatively small—limiting direct exposure—significant disruptions in global trade flows or economic slowdowns among key trading partners could still affect the country’s economy. Possible effects of potential shocks should be analysed to allow for a timely response when needed.
