The current situation of Ukrainian refugees in Moldova

In this context, it is recommended to improve the quality of currently collected official data as well as to extend data collection with surveys on refugees’ financial resources and expenditures.

Background

Until 2022, the number of registered refugees in Moldova was very low and included almost no refugees from neighbouring Ukraine. When the Russian invasion of Ukraine started, this changed dramatically with large numbers of Ukrainian refugees arriving in Moldova. Due to the low numbers of refugees in the past, Moldovan institutions were not prepared for this large influx. New procedures and legislation were passed in a matter of days by the emergency commission, which created considerable implementation challenges, including on questions of how best to record information about refugees and their impact on Moldova. Having such information available, including on the number of refugees and their activities in the country is however very important to understand the economic impact of refugees and to develop an appropriate policy response. Considering that refugees contribute to consumption in their host countries, their presence can have positive implications for the economy. Additional positive effects may result from the integration of refugees into the labour market, especially in countries such as Moldova, where lack of labour represents a barrier to economic growth. On the other hand, refugees can also represent a burden on thepublic budget, if they receive financial and in-kind support funded by the host country.

Number of refugees in Moldova

According to official figures published by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), the number of refugees from Ukraine in Moldova as of 20 August 2023 was 117,162, which is equal to 4.5% of Moldova’s population. However, official figures are likely to overestimate the number of Ukrainian refugees in Moldova due to three factors. Considering that the number of refugees is based on the number of border crossings, it also includes those Ukrainians, who are involved in the transportation of refugees between Ukraine and Moldova and who cross the border on a regular basis without staying in Moldova for longer time periods. Secondly, a certain share of the officially counted refugees can be attributed to so-called “humanitarian tourists” – Ukrainian citiziens living close to the border, who come to Moldova in order to receive aid without staying in Moldova as refugees. Lastly, a considerable number of residents in the Transnistrian region hold Ukrainian passports and may thus be incor- rectly recorded as Ukrainian refugees, if entering Moldova through a border with Ukraine. Unofficial estimates by local experts suggest that the actual number of Ukrainian refugees in Moldova as of August 2023 may be closer to 65,000. This would be equal to about 2.5% of Moldova’s resident population, similar to Poland, where Ukrainian refugees account for 2.6% of the population but higher than in Germany (1.3%).

Characteristics of refugees in Moldova

Information about the geographic distribution of Ukrainian refugees in Moldova as well as their socioeconomic characteristics is not systematically collected on a regular basis. Based on the latest available information by UNHCR and research conducted by local experts, the majority of refugees live in Moldova’s urban centers with more than 60% living in Chişinău. Similar to other host countries, the majority of Ukrainian refugees are women and children. According to estimates based on official data by Moldovan border police, UNHCR and IOM, 69% of adult refugees from Ukraine are female and their average age is 46.5 years. At the same time, 46% of all refugees are minors with an average of two children per household. The majority previously lived in the Odessa region and other urban centers of Ukraine close to Moldova.

Integration into the Moldovan labour market

Officially only 1,124 Ukrainian refugees are recorded as employed within Moldova. At the same time, the number of refugees who are working is likely to be much larger, as many refugees are employed informally. The reasons for this include tax evasion purposes by both refugees and employers, but also bureaucratic burdens. In order to be officially employed in Moldova, refugees need to attain the temporary protection status in Moldova. Due to low capacities within the Moldovan administration, the number of refugees who have received this status so far was only 13,258 as of 21 August 2023. Local experts estimate the number of all employed refugees in Moldova to be about 10,000. Another issue restricting Ukrainians’ access to the Moldovan labour market is the limited availability of childcare services and schools for refugee children. The large difference between official statistics and estimated employment numbers for refugees shows that the quality of data on refugees’ involvement in the labour market needs to be improved for adequate policymaking in this area.

Financial resources and expenses of refugee

To improve policymaking and channel the potentially positive effects of Ukrainian refugees on the Moldovan economy, information about financial resources as well as spending patterns of refugees is of importance.

Financial resources

Ukrainian refugees in Moldova receive financial assistance administered by UNHCR and funded by international donors. The average refugee household consisting of one adult and two children currently receives
MDL 6,600 per month, which is equal to about EUR 340. In addition, refugees may have their own income from employment in Moldova as well as other sources of financing such as money transfers or savings. There is no data on such financial resources of refugees available at the moment.

Expenses

Many refugees in Moldova receive in-kind assistance for food and basic household goods, which is provided by various international and Moldovan NGOs. Thus, the main expense for most refugees is rent. While refugees in Moldova have the option of staying in state-run refugee accommodation centers free of charge, many choose to stay in privately rented housing. Estimates by local experts suggest that about 60,000 Ukrainian refugees in Moldova are renters.

The information about financial resources and expenditures of refugees is currently very limited, which makes it difficult to assess their impact on the Moldovan housing market and other sectors of the economy.

Recommendations

Despite the discrepancy between official statistics and unofficial estimates, the number of Ukrainian refugees currently staying in Moldova is significant. As such, these people likely have a positive impact on the economy as they contribute to domestic consumption and the Moldovan labour market. At the same time, the burden on the budget is very limited as support is to a large extent provided by international donors. However, better information about the current situation of refugees in Moldova is needed to understand these dynamics and encourage positive impacts through policymaking. In particular, the recording of the number of refugees present in the country and their geographic distribution by Moldovan authorities should become more accurate. This would enable for example targeted policies for labour market integration. Similarly, data on employment of refugees should be improved, including by facilitating the attainment of temporary protection status for refugees, which would encourage them to seek official employment contracts. Lastly, information about the financial resources and spending behaviour of refugees should be collected through structured surveys among refugees in Moldova.

This newsletter is based on research conducted by local expert Alexandr Macuhin.

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