Negative outlook due to economic sanctions
The development of the Belarusian economy was relatively stable last year: GDP growth amounted to 2.3%. In particular, high commodity prices and the associated good external economic momentum contributed to this development. The main drawback is the high inflation, which currently stands at 10.4%.
The sanctions imposed by the West in 2021 have not yet affected the country’s economy but will have an impact this year and next. We forecast a significant negative effect of the sanctions of -0.8 of GDP (2023:-0.2% of GDP).
The war in Ukraine has abruptly clouded the economic outlook for Belarus in three ways. New sanctions against Belarus, spillover effects from the massive Russia sanctions, and Ukraine’s high share in Belarusian exports will hit the economy hard. The enormous increase in uncertainty due to the conflict is already evident on the international financial markets.
