Green jobs for Ukraine’s sustainable reconstruction

Background

Already before Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine committed to decarbonising its economy and published its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) in July 2021. One central target of this strategy is achieving climate neutrality by 2060. Meeting this goal requires a major restructuring of Ukraine’s economy where new skills and the adaption of existing one will be required.

Although this challenge is global, it is even more pressing in Ukraine. Large parts of the formerly employed population are currently not participating in the labour market due to the war. Therefore, targeted efforts to green the workforce are vital to achieving both green reconstruction and climate goals.

What are green jobs?

Green jobs are central to achieving both environmental and economic objectives. According to the International Labour Organisation, green jobs are those that contribute to protecting and restoring the environment while meeting standards for decent work. These roles encompass sectors from traditional industries like manufacturing and construction to newer fields such as renewable energy and energy efficiency (ILO). Green jobs can be identified through two approaches: by the output of environmental goods and services or by the process within any sector based on how environmentally sustainable their methods and procedures are (ILO, 2023). In a recent paper, we apply the process approach to estimate the number of green jobs potentially created from 2025 to 2035.

General labour market situation

In general, Ukraine’s labour market continues to face significant challenges due to the ongoing displacement of its population caused by Russia’s war of aggression. According to the UNHCR, approximately 6 million Ukrainians are currently living abroad, the majority being women and children (UNHCR, 2025). Surveys indicate that only about half of them express a definite or tentative willingness to return (CES, 2025).

This labour shortage is mirrored in the 2025 survey results from the National Bank of Ukraine’s quarterly business survey. Nearly half of the companies surveyed identified a shortage of skilled labour as the main barrier to expanding output. The tight labour market is further evidenced by a dramatic drop in the number of applicants per job: while in 2021, there were roughly six applicants for each vacancy, by January 2025, this had fallen to just one, leaving employers with virtually no room to select suitable candidates.

On the demand side however, one-third of businesses report an output growth anticipation in Q1-25 leading to an increase in demand for labour (NBU, 2025).

Nevertheless, the overall labour market remains under pressure.

Green jobs in Ukraine in 2019

Unlike EU or OECD countries, where data on green employment is readily available (e.g. Eurostat, OECD, Causa et al. 2024), Ukraine lacks such statistics.

To provide a rough estimate, we use the share of environmental protection investment in total capital investment across sectors. The estimates show that in 2019, only 2.8% of Ukraine’s workforce was employed in green jobs, compared to 7.3% in Germany. With the war, this dropped to 2.1% in 2023, ca. 277 thsd. people.

Forecasting green jobs in 2035

For Ukraine’s green reconstruction path, we estimated the green job potential by 2035. The underlying approach to estimate this potential green job creation links total reconstruction investment needs based on the World Bank’s et al. Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment 4 (RDNA4) with sector-specific job creation multipliers. Green jobs are defined as the additional employment generated under a green reconstruction scenario compared to standard practices. Estimates based on this approach show that green reconstruction could generate substantial employment across key sectors.

The transport sector is expected to lead in terms of job creation, with occupations ranging from EV technicians to electric bus drivers. This is followed by the energy sector, including solar PV installers and wind turbine technicians. Water supply, education, and healthcare follow suit. In total, we estimated that Ukraine’s green reconstruction can add 1.5 m green jobs until 2035 bringing the total number of green jobs to 1.8 m.

Policy implications and outlook

While several small-scale and pilot projects already support green skill development, these efforts must be scaled up to meet labour market needs and close the projected skills gap. As the development of green jobs is a major challenge in many of Ukraine’s partner countries, we consider various policy measures to address this challenge for Ukraine based on their experience.

Two dimensions are in focus: expanding the skill sets required for green jobs and increasing the overall size of the labour force. On a broader scale, expanding skills can be achieved by adapting the education system to include dual study programmes focused on green skills. This can be oriented toward the German dual study system which helped accelerate Germany’s energy transition. Also, comprehensive on-the-job retraining initiatives to support fair transitions from declining occupations to emerging green sectors can be introduced. These large-scale approaches can be complemented by targeted instruments such as international expert exchange programmes, where experts spend some time in Ukrainian companies to diffuse their knowledge, as well as training opportunities for Ukrainian refugees abroad, enabling them to return with valuable green skills. To increase the labour force size, activating people currently not working for green jobs is key. Particularly, policy instruments may address women and veterans. Such measures should include both green skills training and supporting infrastructure, such as childcare for women and a comprehensive veteran strategy to facilitate reintegration and social support.

These targeted efforts should be complemented by broader labour market reforms, including greater flexibility, improved labour needs forecasting, modernised unemployment services, and policies to attract skilled migrants. Just transition measures are also essential to ensure a fair and locally responsive green recovery.

Conclusion

Ukraine’s green reconstruction presents major challenges in terms of attracting vast investments, but also opportunities for employment and economic transformation. Yet, current labour shortages are creating a mismatch between current and future green job demand and supply. Bridging this gap requires related policies. Addressing the green skills gap is key to position Ukraine as a low-carbon, future-oriented economy and green tech hub.

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This newsletter is based on the Policy Paper “Bridging the green job gap for Ukraine’s sustainable reconstruction”.