GET forecast: electricity demand to grow strongly by 2035

The findings indicate a substantial demand increase of 62-87% until 2035. Along with overall electricity use, peak load is expected to rise from 12.4 GW in 2023 to 20.3-23.0 GW in 2035. To meet this growing demand investments in generation, transmission and storage capacity are needed. Apart from investments, we recommend focussing on tariff reforms, demand-side management and broader efficiency measures to ensure a reliable supply of electricity.

Uzbekistan’s electricity consumption is rising rapidly

Uzbekistan’s electricity demand is surging, driven by rapid economic growth and a growing population. Forecasts suggest that GDP will continue growing by over 5% annually in the medium and long term. Rising living standards and ongoing urbanisation further contribute to higher consumption. Additionally, industrialisation and the increasing use of electricity, e.g., in the transport sector, are accelerating demand. As a result, Uzbekistan’s electricity demand has grown at an annual rate of 4% since 2014, reaching 81 TWh in 2023, with notable seasonal peaks in consumption. Despite investments, Uzbekistan’s energy system is under increasing pressure and limitations in power generation and regional transmission.

Demand forecasting essential for investment planning

With electricity consumption increasing and supply already strained, accurate demand projections are essential to be able to meet future demand and at the same time to prevent over-investment and stranded assets. Various factors influence electricity consumption – economic growth drives it up, while energy efficiency measures can slow it down – highlighting the need for a data-driven analysis. To support informed energy system planning, the German Economic Team has prepared an electricity demand projection for Uzbekistan.

The model

We use the forecasting model Prophet, which takes hourly electricity consumption data from 2014 to 2023 as input. By identifying key trends and relationships in historical data, the model generates a projection of electricity demand up to 2035 under different scenarios. Three model variants are developed, each incorporating additional external factors to capture different influences on electricity consumption.

External variables of the three model variants

 Source: own illustration

The first variant, “Steady growth,” focuses on overall economic expansion but does not account for structural shifts in the economy. To address this, the second variant, “Sectoral expansion,” incorporates residential, industrial, and transport sectorspecific electricity consumption data into the first model. It considers how rising living standards, industrial production, and the growing share of electric vehicles affect demand. Finally, the third variant, “Tariff impact,” additionally examines the role of electricity tariffs. In 2024, household and commercial tariffs were raised significantly. This adjustment aims to encourage more efficient energy use. The third variant incorporates how electricity consumption may respond to recent and planned tariff increases.

Results: 62-87% demand increase by 2035

Electricity demand projections across all three model variants indicate substantial growth in the coming years. The range of outcomes highlights how different economic drivers and sectoral trends could shape Uzbekistan’s energy needs through 2035.

The “Steady growth” model projects Uzbekistan’s annual electricity demand to reach 137.2 TWh by 2035 – a growth of 69% from the 2023 level. Peak load is projected to increase from 12.4 GW in 2023 to 21.2 GW by 2035. In this variant, rising demand is primarily driven by overall economic expansion, absent major changes in consumption behaviour or policy interventions.

Rising industrial production, increased electrification in transport, and higher GDP per capita put further upward pressure on demand. Taking these factors into account as well, the “Sectoral expansion” variant projects electricity demand to reach 151.5 TWh by 2035 (+87%), with a peak load of 23 GW.

The “Tariff impact” model follows a different trajectory, with demand growth initially slowing in response to higher electricity tariffs. After this initial moderation, demand growth resumes post-2025, assuming tariffs remain stable in real terms – in other words, tariffs only grow at the same rate as inflation. In this variant, electricity demand and peak load are projected to reach 130.9 TWh (+62%) and 20.3 GW by 2035. If additional tariff hikes are introduced, demand growth could be further dampened.

Conclusion

The projected rise in overall electricity demand, and peak demand in particular, makes it clear that investments in generation capacity, transmission, and distribution are necessary. Further, increasing system flexibility, such as building battery storage, appears to be essential for managing demand surges and integrating a higher share of renewables. In parallel, the implementation of demand-side management strategies, such as smart meters and time-of-use pricing, can help ease peak load pressure. These measures give consumers more control over their electricity use and enable grid operators to optimise load balancing. The model also shows that a cost-reflective tariff structure will help moderate consumption and ensure more efficient energy use.

Additionally, we see value in establishing a dedicated forecasting unit in the country to improve energy system planning. This unit would have direct access to critical data on consumption, pricing, and sectoral trends and the ability to model evolving energy patterns.

PDF Download

This newsletter is based on the Policy Study “Uzbekistan’s electricity demand forecasting: an outlook until 2035”.