External factors dampen economic growth
Due to external factors, the economic development is once again losing momentum. The forecast for 2019 has been revised downwards once again and now stands at only 1.8%. One of the main reasons for this is the pollution of the “Druzhba” oil pipeline, which has a negative impact on the production and export of oil products.
The growth forecast for 2020 remains even weaker at 1.3%. Inflation remains at a for Belaruslow level of 5%, leaving room for a gradual easing of monetary policy. Accordingly, real interest rates are also declining, which is stimulating credit demand. In contrast, the fiscalsituation will worsen again in 2019 and 2020: rising expenditures in the run-up to the elections and revenue losses in the wake of the Russian tax manoeuvre will have a negative impact on the budget and public debt. In addition, foreign trade is shrinking for the first time since 2016 due to interrupted crude oil supplies and various trade tensions with Russia.
