Implications of the DCFTA revision
On 4 October 2025, revised trade provisions under the EU-Moldova deep and comprehensive free trade area (DCFTA) entered into force, effectively replacing the recently expired EU autonomous trade measures (ATMs).
Moldova’s access to the EU market: compared to the old tariff rate quotas (TRQs) under the DCFTA, the new TRQs offer noticeable changes. Two TRQs were abolished, one was converted into an entry price control, and the other four were expanded, creating space for an additional USD 82 m of duty-free exports. At the same time, as the new TRQs exceed Moldova’s exports to the EU in 2024, no short-term changes in Moldovan exports to the EU are expected following the expiration of the ATMs.
EU´s access to the Moldovan market: out of six TRQs applied to imports from the EU to Moldova, three TRQs – on pork, poultry and dairy – are to be gradually expanded between 2026-2029. The expansion in TRQs for pork and dairy is expected to lead to USD 4.2 m in additional imports from the EU after the transition period is over.
Market access revision
On 4 October 2025, a revised trade agreement between Moldova and the EU came into force. The revision followed the expiration of the EU ATMs, applied from Jul-22 to Jul-25. These measures temporarily provided Moldovan exporters with expanded TRQs and later duty-free access to the EU market.
The review of the DCFTA , under Article 147 of the Association Agreement, envisages the mutual expansion of duty-free TRQs for agricultural products. Moldova has also commited to accelerate the adoption of EU production standards to create a level playing field with the EU producers.
The changes to the EU TRQs are effective immediately, while the adjustments to Moldova’s TRQs will be gradually phased in starting from 2026. The new arrangements also reinforce the safeguard clauses, should this additional market access cause economic, societal or environmental difficulties. The parties also agreed to return to the topic of further liberalisation in 2027.
Moldova’s access to the EU market
The new EU TRQs for Moldova should be evaluated in two dimensions: in comparison with the old TRQs and in relation to actual exports under ATMs in 2024.
New vs old TRQs: out of the seven existing TRQs, two (grape juice and garlic) were abolished, one (tomatoes) was moved to entry price control, and four (table grapes, apples, plums, and cherries) were substantially expanded.
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According to our estimations, the potential expansion of duty-free exports, if all TRQs are fully utilised, amounts to USD 82 m per year, representing a 115% increase at the aggregate level. Moldovan exporters could earn up to USD 10 m per year, fetching higher prices under the duty-free regime.
Moreover, unlike the ATMs that had to be approved annually, the new TRQs reinstate long-term predictability. As such, they not only influence the short-term orientation of exports but also could impact long-term investment decisions.
New TRQs vs ATMs: as the new TRQs exceed Moldova’s actual exports to the EU under the ATMs in 2024, no adverse effects on Moldova’s exports in the short run are anticipated.
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That makes a striking difference compared to Ukraine, where the revised TRQs are set below the 2024 exports levels to the EU and thus are unable to compensate for the loss of access to the EU market by the ATMs (see GET_UKR_NL_200).
EU´s access to Moldovan market
Out of six TRQs that Moldova applies towards EU imports, three – pork, poultry and dairy – will be gradually expanded over 2026-2029. The other three will not change. As the poultry TRQ was not fully utilised in 2024, the TRQ revision will only have an impact on the Moldovan market of pork and dairy.
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Pork: the TRQ revision for imports from the EU envisaged a 1.0 tt for frozen pork in addition to the old TRQ of 5.5 tt for fresh and frozen pork. This TRQ expansion would lead to an increase in Moldova’s imports by 0.9 tt or USD 3.6 m compared to 2024. This increase is equivalent to 2.2% of farm production (41 tt) in 2024, putting some competitive pressure on Moldovan farmers, with whom the EU exporters mainly compete. The pressure will be exerted only gradually over four years, allowing time for adjustment. At the same time, the processing industry would benefit from cheaper raw materials, thereby improving its competitiveness and increasing export opportunities in the medium term.
Dairy: the revision envisages TRQs of 1.0 tt for milk and 0.5 tt for butters in addition to 2 tt of the old TRQ for dairy products. The TRQ expansion results in a limited increase of 0.1 tt or USD 0.6 m of dairy imports from the EU compared to 2024, driven by higher imports of more expensive butter and dairy spreads, while imports of milk remain stable. The additional imports from the EU will mainly substitute Ukrainian dairy products, which already enjoy a duty-free market, and thus have a minor impact on domestic animal husbandry. At the same time, the processing industry will benefit from the separate TRQ for butter, allowing for cheaper manufacturing of dairy products earmarked for exports to the EU (e.g., ice cream).
The TRQ expansion means a loss of the customs duty revenues for Moldova. The impact is estimated at USD 0.48 m, out of which USD 0.41 m due to the expansion of dairy TRQ .
Thus, the TRQ expansion mainly increases competitive pressure for pork, while for dairy, it primarily affects Moldovan customs revenues.
Conclusion
The expiration of the EU ATMs for Moldova triggered the revision of the mutual market access terms stipulated in the EU-Moldova DCFTA. The changes that came into force in October envisage a noticeable expansion of Moldova’s access to the EU market compared to the old TRQs, and a gradual further opening of the Moldovan market for EU exporters. Further trade liberalisation talks are earmarked for 2027.
This newsletter is based on our Policy Briefings “New EU tariff rate quotas for Moldovan products: effect on exports” and “New Moldovan tariff rate quotas for EU products”.
