GET and CES present plattform for discussion: Ukraine’s Economy in 2026 and 2027: Forecasts by Independent Economists
On 5 August, the German Economic Team, in collaboration with the Centre for Economics and Strategy (CES), organised a discussion event featuring leading forecasting institutes. Together with CES, we have asked Ukrainian and international analytical teams to share their outlook for Ukraine’s key macroeconomic indicators for 2026 and 2027. For further information, please click on the link below.
Independent economists expect slower GDP growth and higher inflation in 2026. The median forecast for real GDP growth is 1.1%, down from 2.4% projected in December 2025. This implies a slowdown in economic growth compared with the 1.8% recorded in 2025.
The inflation outlook for 2026 has also deteriorated compared with the expectations published in December 2025. Analysts forecast 9.6% year-end inflation, or 8.2% average annual inflation, compared with previous expectations of 6.6% and 7.1%, respectively.
The outlook for 2027 is more optimistic. The median GDP growth forecast stands at 2.2%, while the highest projection reaches 5%, assuming hostilities come to an end. Even so, inflation is expected to remain elevated, with the median forecast at 9% by the end of 2027.
The budget deficit is expected to narrow gradually over 2026–2027, reaching USD 43 billion and USD 39 billion, respectively. International financing is projected to be sufficient to cover Ukraine’s external financing needs, provided these do not increase because of an escalation in hostilities or the materialisation of other risks.
On the one hand, the discussion provided key economic research institutes in Ukraine with a platform to exchange views on different economic projections. On the other hand, it gave them the opportunity to compare these views with government projections in dialogue with the National Bank of Ukraine.
For the full presentation as well as the underlying assumption, please visit the Centre for Economics Strategy’s website: https://ces.org.ua/en/macroforecast-aug-2026/
