Economic Monitor Kyrgyzstan
The Kyrgyz economy grew strongly in 2022, despite the effects of the war in Ukraine, but high inflation is weighing on the country. Furthermore, there is an increasing export dependence on Russia.
WA 1 | October 2022
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- 2021: GDP growth of 3.6%
- 2022: no negative effect of war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia so far; instead, high growth of 7.7% in 7M2022 due to increased gold production and robust remittances
- Rising food prices and high inflation (15.6% in Aug-22) lead to economic and social problems
- Volatile exchange rate: depreciation after beginning of the war in UKR, afterwards appreciation vs. the US dollar; Som appreciation also supported by influx of Russian citizens
- Imports up by 67% in 6M2022, while exports remain flat; but expected resumption of gold exports should strongly increase exports
- Currently large current account deficit, but magnitude should decrease due to resumption of gold exports
- Low budget deficit of 1.3% of GDP in 2021; should be even lower in 2022; government debt of approx. 61% of GDP relatively high, but should decrease in light of high growth
Special topics
- Energy balance and trade. Potential to increase electricity trade with neighbours
- Kumtor mine dispute. After settlement of dispute in July 2022, resumption of exports imminent
