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Economic Monitor Uzbekistan

The Uzbek economy has muddled through the Corona pandemic relatively smoothely. High growth rates are expected to return in 2021.

  • Uzbekistan
WA 05 | June 2021
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting

Overview

  • 2020: Economic growth of 1.6% despite pandemic
  • 2021: Return to high growth of 5.0%
  • Strong increase in investment (7.0%) and services (7.7%) expected in 2021
  • Inflation falls from around 11% at the end of 2020 to below 10% by the end of 2021
  • Slower real wage growth during pandemic, but expected to accelerate again in 2021
    Stable exchange rate against the US dollar in 2021 and very high foreign exchange reserves
  • Remittance growth of 34% in 4M 2021 shows recovery in migrant destination countries
  • Fiscal deficit lower than expected at 4.4% of GDP in 2020; 5.5% projected for 2021; no risk to fiscal sustainability
  • Strong trade recovery: imports up 15%, exports up 44% (excluding gold) in 6M 2021

Topics

  • Agriculture. Reforms show first successes, but still a long way to go
    Energy. No significant decline in gas consumption expected by 2030, according to own forecast.
  • Exports. Barriers to exporting fruit and vegetables and clothing to the EU.
  • Banking sector. Far-reaching reform plans including extensive privatisation.
  • Corona. Increased caseloads and stricter measures, vaccinations progressing slowly

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