Economic Monitor Uzbekistan
The war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia have so far had only a minor impact on Uzbekistan. Exports to Russia have risen significantly, contrary to expectations, and foreign remittances have also increased due to special effects. The Uzbek economy is therefore expected to grow significantly faster in 2022 than the 3.4% currently forecasted.
WA 07 | August 2022
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- Strong economic growth of 7.4% in 2021, driven by strong consumption and investment
- Growth forecast of 3.4% for 2022, actual value probably significantly higher
- Reasons: Almost no impact of the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia , trade with Russia increases significantly, remittances also due to one-time effects
- Inflation rises slightly to 12% in July-22 and is expected to remain at this level, increase mainly due to higher food prices; energy prices stable
- National currency Sum has fully compensated for interim depreciation against the US dollar
- Current account deficit probably significantly lower than forecast (8.3% of GDP)
- Significant upturn in foreign trade in 6M2022: exports rise by 40%, imports by 25%; gold exports double year-on-year
- Budget deficit of 6.2% of GDP in 2021, expected to fall to 4.4% in 2022; debt moderate at less than 40% of GDP, still room for support measures for the population
Topics
- Electricity sector. Costs can be saved through greater expansion of renewable energies
- Industrial policy. Potential for the development of automotive clusters in Uzbekistan
- Banking Monitor. Overview of developments and reform plans
