- 2020: Economic growth of 1.6% despite pandemic
- 2021: Return to high growth of 5.0%
- Strong increase in investment (7.0%) and services (7.7%) expected in 2021
- Inflation falls from around 11% at the end of 2020 to below 10% by the end of 2021
- Slower real wage growth during pandemic, but expected to accelerate again in 2021
Stable exchange rate against the US dollar in 2021 and very high foreign exchange reserves
- Remittance growth of 34% in 4M 2021 shows recovery in migrant destination countries
- Fiscal deficit lower than expected at 4.4% of GDP in 2020; 5.5% projected for 2021; no risk to fiscal sustainability
- Strong trade recovery: imports up 15%, exports up 44% (excluding gold) in 6M 2021
- Agriculture. Reforms show first successes, but still a long way to go
Energy. No significant decline in gas consumption expected by 2030, according to own forecast.
- Exports. Barriers to exporting fruit and vegetables and clothing to the EU.
- Banking sector. Far-reaching reform plans including extensive privatisation.
- Corona. Increased caseloads and stricter measures, vaccinations progressing slowly