Economic Monitor Uzbekistan
The economy is growing strongly, at an estimated 7.3% in 2025, driven by rising consumption and investment. Inflation continues to fall and is expected to reach 5% by the end of 2027.
WA 13 | December 2025
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- Uzbek economy estimated to grow by a high 7.3% in 2025, driven by persistently high private consumption and investment
- Inflation is continuously decreasing (Nov-25: 7.5%); to reach 5% by end of 2027
- Som appreciated by 8% vs the US dollar between April and November 2025, supported by strong remittances growth
- Current account deficit to decrease to 3.3% of GDP in 2025 due to growing exports and remittances; expected to stay below 4% in 2026
- International reserves increased to USD 61.2 bn in Nov-25, amounting to 12 months of expected imports
- Goods trade significantly expanded: exports +34% yoy in 9M2025, especially through higher gold exports; imports increased by 14% yoy
- Fiscal deficit decreased to 3% of GDP in 2025; to remain at that moderate level in 2026
- Public debt fell below 30% of GDP
Special issue
- Equilibrium exchange rate. Som only slightly overvalued or in balance with fundamentals
- Electricity wholesale market. Phased approach to integrate existing power purchase agreements
