Economic Monitor Ukraine
Overview
» Ukraine continues on its growth path, but growth slows down to 5.3% yoy in 2023, 3.6% in 2024, 3.4% in 2025
» Consumption and investment drive growth, with energy damages and mobilization acting as brakes
» Rising inflation exceeds the target rate, monetary policy remains restrictive
» Growing current account deficit (2024: -5.9%) caused by an increasing trade balance deficit
» Controlled depreciation with increased reserve levels (Aug-24: USD 42 bn)
» Financing the budget deficit for 2024 and 2025 remains challenging. Previously committed financial aid is insufficient
» Public debt remains high, despite successful debt restructuring
» New corridor over the Black Sea positive for exports, but imports continue to grow stronger
Special issues
»Situation in the energy sector: Severe damages at all levels lead to supply bottlenecks – power shutdowns as a consequence. The situation before winter remains extremely tense
»Target groups for investments from Germany: Focus on companies with Ukraine experience. Identification of actionable recommendations
