Economic Monitor Moldova
Moldova’s economy recovered strongly in 2021 reaching pre-crisis levels. For 2022, the outlook is marked by uncertainty due to high inflation. The restrictive monetary policy will likely dampen economic growth.
WA 15 | February 2022
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- New reform-oriented government in office since Jul-21
- Sharp increase in gas import prices since Oct-21 poses major challenges for the country
- Pre-crisis GDP level reached after strong economic recovery in 2021
- GDP outlook for 2022 marked by insecurity due to high inflation
- Inflation rate on strong upward trend since Sep-21; National Bank forecast for 2022: 18.8%
- Stable exchange rate and higher foreign exchange reserves due to donor loans
- Effective real appreciation puts pressure on international competitiveness
- Fiscal deficit estimated at 5.2% of GDP in 2021, with further increase to 6.0% in 2022
- New IMF programme of USD 558 m and EU macro-financial assistance of EUR 150 m confirmed
Topics
- Gas price shock. Financial support for private households decided; GET advises against broad financial support to firms
- Russia-Ukraine conflict. Effects on Moldova and regional effects
- Free Economic Zones. Reform of incentives and institutional framework needed
