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Economic Monitor Moldova

Moldova’s economy recovered strongly in 2021 reaching pre-crisis levels. For 2022, the outlook is marked by uncertainty due to high inflation. The restrictive monetary policy will likely dampen economic growth.

  • Moldova
WA 15 | February 2022
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting

Overview

  • New reform-oriented government in office since Jul-21
  • Sharp increase in gas import prices since Oct-21 poses major challenges for the country
  • Pre-crisis GDP level reached after strong economic recovery in 2021
  • GDP outlook for 2022 marked by insecurity due to high inflation
  • Inflation rate on strong upward trend since Sep-21; National Bank forecast for 2022: 18.8%
  • Stable exchange rate and higher foreign exchange reserves due to donor loans
  • Effective real appreciation puts pressure on international competitiveness
  • Fiscal deficit estimated at 5.2% of GDP in 2021, with further increase to 6.0% in 2022
  • New IMF programme of USD 558 m and EU macro-financial assistance of EUR 150 m confirmed

Topics

  • Gas price shock. Financial support for private households decided; GET advises against broad financial support to firms
  • Russia-Ukraine conflict. Effects on Moldova and regional effects
  • Free Economic Zones. Reform of incentives and institutional framework needed

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