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Economic Monitor Moldova

The country’s economic recovery continues despite ongoing political uncertainty. Exchange rate and inflation rate stable.

  • Moldova
WA 14 | June 2021
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting

Overview

  • Political uncertainty remains ahead of parliamentary elections on 11 July
  • Economic recovery expected despite uncertainty; GET forecast for GDP in 2021: 4.8
  • Recovery mainly driven by strong consumption and exports
    Inflation rate remained stable during the crisis; currently slight increase towards the National Bank’s target range; forecast for 2021 (average): 2.5
  • Exchange rate fairly stable during Corona crisis and higher foreign exchange reserves due to donor loans
  • Budget deficit expected to reach 4.0% of GDP in 2021, down from 5.1% of GDP in 2020
  • EU has just announced a large rescue package of EUR 600 million for Moldova, including macro-financial assistance, grants and investments.

Topics

  • Corona case numbers decline continuously; vaccination campaign started in March, so far 9.1% of the population have been vaccinated at least once
  • Remittances were robust during the crisis, especially from the EU; stabilising factor
  • Private sector: Moldova’s IT sector, still small compared to neighbouring countries, has great development potential

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