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Economic Monitor Moldova

Moldova is affected by several shocks due to the war in Ukraine. Energy and food prices, which, as a result, remain very high, and the consequent inflation pose a serious problem. The war has also partially disrupted foreign trade. Furthermore, Moldova accommodates a large number of refugees from Ukraine. The impact of these shocks results in a negative economic outlook for this year: GET forecasts a 0.4% decline in GDP with significant downside risks.

  • Moldova
WA 16 | August 2022
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting


  • Moldova is hit by multiple shocks: high energy/food prices, trade disruptions and high refugee influx due to war in UKR
  • After strong economic recovery with 13.9% GDP growth in 2021, outlook for 2022 is thus negative
  • GET forecasts GDP to drop by 0.4% in 2022, with considerable downside risks
  • Inflation very high; in July inflation rate reached 33.6% yoy; food and energy prices, kept high by war in UKR, are the key drivers of inflation
  • Stable exchange rate and only moderately reduced foreign exchange reserves due to donor loans
  • Money transfers rebounded after first months of war, supporting private consumption
  • Fiscal deficit expected to grow to 7.2% of GDP in 2022 to cover higher social expenditures for energy subsidies and UKR refugees
  • International financial support by partners (IMF, EU, bilateral) remains crucial

Special issues

  • Gas prices. Energy security and affordability of heating remain crucial issues. Progress on energy efficiency could reduce pressure on households and state budget
  • Electricity sector. Diversification of electricity supply a key priority for energy security
  • Agriculture. Considerable immediate challenges and long-term potential for growth

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