Economic Monitor Moldova

Negative effect of energy shock on GDP, inflation and external sector. As such, no economic recovery from the severe recession in 2022.

WA 22 | October 2025

Dec-24/Jan-25: energy shock; higher cost for imports of electricity and gas
Negative effect of energy shock on economic growth; GDP forecast for 2025: 0.6% to 1.8%
As such, no economic recovery from the severe recession in 2022
Recent energy shock pushed CPI-inflation to 7.3% in Aug-25, after 4.7% in 2024
Goods trade deficit is widening due to higher energy imports and weaker exports
Negative effect of energy shock on GDP, inflation and external sector

Substantial current account deficit (CAD): 16% in 2024 and 24% of GDP in 1H-25
At the same time: national currency leu and NBM’s FX reserves remain stable
Key question: economic or data problem? Or both?
Monitoring of CAD and improvement of statistical recording of paramount importance