Economic Monitor Georgia
Georgia’s economy has developed very positively despite the war in Ukraine and the sanctions against Russia. According to the current estimate of the National Bank, growth this year will be at 9%. The main impact of the war is the influx of about 45,000 people from Russia and Belarus to Georgia. The additional spending by this group is a positive shock to the current account and partly explains why the Georgian economy has been relatively little affected by the war. Trade in goods with Russia is also stable, as Georgia is partly a substitute supplier of Western products.
WA 16 | August 2022
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- High economic growth of 10.4% in 2021, thus exceeding pre-COVID-19 level
- Very strong GDP outlook for 2022 (9.0%), despite war in Ukraine
- Positive impact of sanctions against RUS: relocation of approx. 45,000 people from
RUS/BLR, creating additional consumption expenditures of approx. 1.8% of GDP - Recovery in tourism revenues: level of 2019 expected to be reached or even exceeded
- After initial depreciation, Lari appreciated by around 8% since start of war in Ukraine
- Inflation remains high (11.5% yoy in Jul-22), mainly due to higher commodity prices
- NBG raised policy rate to 11.0% (+0.5 pp) to prevent rise in inflation expectations
- Fiscal deficit reduced to 3.6% of GDP in 2022 on back of strong recovery
- New IMF programme (USD 280 m) anchors sound macroeconomic framework
Special topics
- Relocation of people from RUS/BLR. Results of CRRC-GET survey
- Relocation of people from RUS/BLR. Economic implications
- Goods exports to Russia. GET estimation of the effect of war and sanctions
