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Economic Monitor Georgia

The Georgian economy is likely to experience only a modest recovery. The main reason is the sharp decline in the tourism sector, which constitutes an important part of the Georgian economy.

  • Georgia
WA 14 | June 2021
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting

Overview

  • Moderate recovery of GDP by 3.5% in 2021, after decline by 6.2% in 2020
  • Outlook for 2021 subdued; reasons: Lockdown in Q1-2021 and weak tourism
  • Current account deficit above 10% of GDP in 2020/2021 due to lack of tourism revenues
  • Lari depreciation by 14% in 2020, but relatively stable around GEL/USD 3.30 in 2021
  • Rising inflation due to lari devaluation (pass-through) and higher commodity prices.
  • NBG response: increase policy rate by 1.5 percentage points in 2021; current: 9.5
  • Remittances on positive trend since second half of 2020; stabilising factor
  • Government continues fiscal support in the crisis (2.3% of GDP in 2021)
  • Successful placement of a USD 500 million Eurobond (maturity: 5 yrs, yield: 2.875%)
  • IMF programme successfully completed, new programme still under discussion

Topics

  • Blueberries. Emerging boom, but strong regional focus on Russia
  • Electricity. Import dependence and Enguri renovation.
  • Corona. Case numbers and vaccinations

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