Economic Monitor Georgia
In 2025 growth remains high at 7.4% yoy, mainly driven by consumption. In 2026 growth is expected to normalise towards the long-term trend growth rate of around 5%.
WA 22 | December 2025
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- 2025: Growth remains high at 7.4% yoy, mainly driven by consumption. Services (including tourism) remain strong in sectoral terms
- 2026: Growth expected to normalise towards the long-term trend growth rate of around 5%
- Exchange rate appreciates to 2.70 GEL/USD over the course of the year, partly due to USD weakness
- Reserves reach a new record high (USD 5.8 bn) following strong purchases during the year (USD 1.8 bn) and an increase in the value of gold reserves (USD 363 m)
- However, inflation has been rising gradually since the end of 2024 (Nov-25: 4.8%); the policy rate has remained unchanged at 8% since mid-2024
- Exports and imports of goods continue the trend from 2024 with growth of around 8%
- Exports of services rise slightly, with strong momentum in IT exports
- The budget deficit has been around 2.5% since 2024 and is expected to remain at this level, while public debt is stabilising at around 35% of GDP
- Refinancing of the Eurobond (USD 500 m) in spring 2026, risk premium relative to US: 350-400 bp
Special issue
- Energy imports from RUS. RUS continues to play a strong role in oil products, rising in natural gas
