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Economic Monitor Belarus

Real GDP will decline this year. However, high uncertainty makes forecasting difficult.

  • Belarus
WA 14 | June 2021
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting


  • Despite the global recovery, real GDP will continue to shrink in 2021 (-0.4%), with continued high forecast uncertainty
  • Sectoral development (5M2021) is extremely heterogeneous: Manufacturing +11.6%; construction -14.1
  • Inflation currently at 9.4% (May-21), well above the National Bank’s target, which reacted late with an interest rate hike to 8.5%. Slight decline in inflation expected at year-end 2021
  • Sharp depreciation of exchange rate in 2020 (-21%), currently stabilising. Foreign exchange reserves at USD 7.8 bn in May-21; import cover low (2.4 months).
  • Fiscal deficit to worsen to -3.8% of GDP in 2021, but debt-to-GDP ratio to decline to 45.7%; options for refinancing remain limited
  • Current account deficit will remain at -0.3% of GDP in 2021, roughly the same as in the previous year
  • After shrinking in 2020, foreign trade is currently (4M2021) showing a strong recovery due to basis and price effects (exports +35%, imports +25%)



  • Government finance. Eurobond yields reflect uncertainty of the situation
  • Price regulation. Administrative measures not an appropriate instrument to fight inflation.
  • Export financing. Tentative reform of state export financing initiated.
  • Corona. Declining number of cases, but incidence still quite high. So far hardly any vaccinations

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