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Economic Monitor Ukraine

Ukraine is recovering relatively quickly from the consequences of the Corona crisis. However, reforms to strengthen growth remain necessary.

  • Ukraine
WA 14 | 2021
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting

Overview

  • Rapid recovery: GDP growth of 4.3% in 2021 driven by domestic demand.
  • Thereafter declining growth rates to pre-crisis level of approx. 3.5%. Reforms therefore necessary.
  • Inflation currently at 9.5%, well above the target corridor (4%-6%). NBU reacts with interest rate hikes.
  • Expansionary fiscal policy to be continued despite recovery. Consolidation and IMF programme important.
  • Recovery of foreign trade due to favourable terms of trade. ICT now most important export service. Current account surplus also in 2021. Exchange rate and reserves stable.

 

Topics

  • IMF programme. IMF support remains important. Major reform efforts still needed.
  • Companies report many obstacles. Functioning EKA necessary.
    ACAA with the EU. Positive direct and indirect effects. Challenge: Institutional alignment.
  • Extension of short-time work would favour future economic recoveries.
  • 7-day incidence falling. Lack of vaccine availability slows down vaccination campaign.

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