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Economic Monitor Ukraine

Ukraine experienced a sluggish economic recovery in 2021 driven by private consumption and a record agriculture harvest, but restricted by low investment. In 2022, Ukraine is forecast to grow moderately as well which is not enough to converge to its peers. The current key risk consists of an escalation of the tensions, caused by a massive build-up of Russian military activities close to Ukraine.

  • Ukraine
WA 15 | February 2022
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting

Overview

  • Moderate recovery of GDP with 3.2% real growth in 2021. In 2022, small increase to 3.3%, if conflict with Russia does not escalate further
  • Growth is driven by private consumption and record harvest, but restricted due to low investment
  • Solid external position and moderate FX development. However, recent tensions with Russia increase volatility
  • Inflation at 10%, way above the target range. Key policy rate was increased to 10% in order to bring inflation back to target until 2023
  • Fiscal policy is back on a consolidation path, with a 3.5% of GDP planned budget deficit
  • Strong recovery of external trade in nominal terms, but exports slightly declined in real terms

 

Topics

  • Russia-Ukraine conflict. So far only limited impact on financial markets. International support is key
  • IMF programme. 2nd tranche in Nov-21 after 16 months delay. Structural reforms are essential forfurther progress
  • Banking sector. Sector has shrunk but is resilient. Share of NPLs is decreasing. Future privatisation is a challenge
  • SME financing. Financing gap is high but decreasing. 5-7-9 programme is important but needs to be refocused
  • IT-sector. Strong growth of the sector and export share but few ties with the rest of the economy
  • Digital transformation. Companies see it as an opportunity but investment is needed
  • Bilateral transport permits. Shortages in permits impede increasing trade with EU countries.

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