Economic Monitor Uzbekistan
Uzbekistan’s economy grew strongly by 7.7% in 2025, supported by robust private consumption and investment, with solid—though slightly slower—growth expected in 2026. Inflation continues to decline, while fiscal and external balances have improved, public debt remains low, and international reserves are at record levels. Although exports remain volatile due to irregular gold shipments, the economy has shown resilience, with only limited exposure to the Iran conflict. At the same time, labour migration to Germany offers significant long-term potential, provided existing bottlenecks are addressed.
WA 14 | June 2026
Overview
- High GDP growth of 7.7% in 2025, driven by high private consumption and investment
- For 2026, dynamics continues but slightly lower growth forecast
- Inflation is continuously decreasing and should be at 6.5% by end of 2026, policy rate still at high 14% p.a.
- Som relatively stable against the US dollar at roughly 12,000 UZS per dollar since Oct-25
- Current account deficit decreased to 3.9% of GDP in 2025 on the back of strongly increasing remittances, further decrease of CA deficit in 2026 expected
- International reserves stood at USD 70.6 bn in May-26 driven by rising gold price; more than 12 months of import cover
- Foreign trade continues to expand but high volatility of goods exports due to irregular gold exports
- Fiscal deficit decreased to 2.1% of GDP in 2025; even lower deficit for 2026 expected
- Public debt continues to decrease; reached 28.6% of GDP in 2025
Special issue
- Impact of Iran-Conflict. Exposure to the conflict limited; impact manageable
- Labour migration to Germany. Huge potential but bottlenecks to be resolved
