Economic Monitor Ukraine
Growth is expected to slow to 2.0% yoy in 2025, followed by a moderate increase to 2.8% in 2026. As the war continues, the focus remains on repair measures rather than broad-based reconstruction (“Build Back Better”).
WA 22 | October 2025
Overview
- Growth is expected to slow to 2.0% yoy in 2025, followed by a moderate increase to 2.8% in 2026. As the war continues, the focus remains on repair measures rather than broad-based reconstruction (“Build Back Better”)
- Inflation peaked in mid-25 and is projected to move towards the target range (4-6%) in 2026.
- A controlled depreciation allows for a gradual reserve accumulation (USD 47 bn
- (International) financing of the fiscal deficit (2025: 21% of GDP) remains the main policy challenge. A significant financing gap persists for the coming year
- Public debt continues to rise and is expected to reach 100% of GDP by 2026
- Export development is supported by the Black Sea corridor but restrained by a weak harvest
- Imports are expanding much faster, resulting in a widening trade deficit (2025: USD 42 bn)
Special issues
- “Reparation loan”: a new concept for medium-term financial support
- FDI: Moderate inflows since the start of the war reflect risk perceptions
- Investment climate: 53% of the GET/AHK (2024) proposals fully or partly implemented
- New EU TRQs: The impact will remain limited due to possible export reorientation
