Economic Monitor Tajikistan
The Tajik economy presents itself in a fairly good condition – economic growth was strong last year and supported by all sectors of the economy, while inflation is very moderate according to official data, public finances are in a sound condition and the country has a current account surplus, due to metal exports and remittances. Geopolitical events, such as the war in Ukraine and sanctions imposed on Russia, do not show adverse effects so far.
WA 1 | January 2023
Macroeconomic Analyses and Forecasting
Overview
- 2021: GDP growth of high 9.2%, according to official data
- 2022: no negative effect of war in Ukraine and Western sanctions on Russia so far; instead, high
growth of 8.0% driven by robust remittances - Surprisingly, no impact of globally rising food prices on inflation in Tajikistan; Nov-22 inflation below 5% according to official figures
- Depreciation of somoni vs US dollar right after the start of war in UKR, followed by strong appreciation; similar development as the Russian rouble
- Current account surpluses in last 3 years due to growing gold exports and remittances
- Strong growth of imports by 27% in 9M2022, exports grew only by 5%
- Moderate public debt level of 36% and low budget deficit of 1.4% of GDP in 2022; nevertheless, high
- risk of debt distress due to spending pressure on infrastructure projects and SOEs
Special topics
- Energy balance and trade. Potential to increase electricity trade with Central Asian neighbours
- Metals and mining. Mining to remain major pillar of economy and even more for exports
